The reliable identification of those offenders at greatest risk of post-release recidivism is critically important given the emotional and financial costs associated with offending behaviour. The aim of the current study was to synthesise the available literature on risk predictors to identify which factors are predictive of recidivism in adult offenders, in the four years following release from custody. After systematically reviewing the literature and selecting those at least risk of bias, 43 high quality studies were subjected to meta-analysis. Sufficient data pertaining to 21 factors were available. Consistent with Bonta and Andrews (2017), prominent factors associated with the 'central eight' risk domains for general recidivism, particularly those indicative of antisocial potential, produced the largest effect sizes. These included factors such as an extensive criminal history (e.g., number of previous incarcerations), rule violations whilst under supervision, and holding procriminal attitudes. Overall, static risk factors were superior to dynamic in predicting recidivism. We explore these findings in the context of the limitations of the risk predictor literature and argue that ongoing behavioural monitoring is a promising means of identifying real-time changes in the antisocial potential of prisoners released to the community.

Open prisons offer a unique contribution to the community resettlement of those serving custodial sentences. However, the evidence base for the efficacy of open prisons is limited and their existence is frequently scrutinised following adverse events including prisoner absconding and re-offending. This paper critically evaluates open prisons’ efficacy and the effective management of risk in this environment. We present a research agenda which aims to delineate the potential mechanisms of open prisons that rehabilitate offenders, while maintaining the safety of these environments. We emphasise the importance of an improved understanding of risk manifestation, and the need to evaluate existing risk management protocols.

Open prisons play a vital role in offender rehabilitation and resettlement but absconds, temporary release failures (TRFs) and re-offences have damaging implications for the legitimacy of these institutions. Identifying and mitigating the risk for such ‘failures’ is crucial. The present study examined predictors of failure in a sample of 316 adult male prisoners in two open prisons in England and Wales. Almost one-third ( n = 100) of the sample failed in open conditions, the greatest proportion ( n = 83 , 26.3%) instigated by the prison to maintain security and good order (security recall). Yet, only seven re-offended in the year following custodial release . Absconds, custodial re-offences, and TRFs were rare events. Regression analysis identified five factors predicting security recall. Current behaviour, rather than static/historical risk factors, more reliably predicted such failures. Behavioural monitoring and systemic policy re-evaluation are proposed as way of mitigating failures in open prisons.