An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification.

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is altering the carbonate chemistry of seawater, with potentially negative consequences for many calcifying marine organisms. At the same time, increasing fisheries exploitation is impacting on marine ecosystems. Here, using increased benthic-invertebrate mortality as a proxy for effects of ocean acidification, the potential impact of the two stressors of fishing and acidification on the southeast Australian marine ecosystem to year 2050 was explored. The individual and interaction effects of the two stressors on biomass and diversity were examined for the entire ecosystem and for regional assemblages. For 61 functional groups or species, the cumulative effects of moderate ocean acidification and fishing were additive (30%), synergistic (33%), and antagonistic (37%). Strong ocean acidification resulted in additive (22%), synergistic (40%), and antagonistic (38%) effects. The greatest impact was on the demersal food web, with fishing impacting predation and acidification affecting benthic production. Areas that have been subject to intensive fishing were the most susceptible to acidification effect, although fishing also mitigated some of the decline in biodiversity observed with moderate acidification. The model suggested that ocean acidification and long-term fisheries exploitation could act synergistically with the increasing sensitivity to change from long-term (decades) fisheries exploitation potentially causing unexpected restructuring of the pelagic and demersal food webs. Major regime shifts occur around year 2040. Greater focus is needed on how differential fisheries exploitation of marine resources may exacerbate or accelerate effects of environmental changes such as ocean acidification.

We have little empirical evidence of how large-scale overlaps between large numbers of marine species may have altered in response to human impacts. Here, we synthesized all available distribution data (>1 million records) since 1992 for 61 species of the East Australian marine ecosystem, a global hot spot of ocean warming and continuing fisheries exploitation. Using a novel approach, we constructed networks of the annual changes in geographical overlaps between species. Using indices of changes in species overlap, we quantified changes in the ecosystem stability, species robustness, species sensitivity and structural keystone species. We then compared the species overlap indices with environmental and fisheries data to identify potential factors leading to the changes in distributional overlaps between species. We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations. Most species have shown a decrease in overlaps with other species. The greatest decrease in species overlap robustness and sensitivity to the loss of other species has occurred in the pelagic community. Some demersal species have become more robust and less sensitive. Pelagic structural keystone species, predominately the tunas and billfish, have been replaced by demersal fish species. The changes in species overlap were strongly correlated with regional oceanographic changes, in particular increasing ocean warming and the southward transport of warmer and saltier water with the East Australian Current, but less correlated with fisheries catch. Our study illustrates how large-scale multispecies distribution changes can help identify structural changes in marine ecosystems associated with climate change.