Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop‐specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather‐driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present‐day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.

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The extent of United States Great Plains grass agriculture has ebbed and flowed over decades in response to market incentives, government policies, technological innovations and weather patterns. Our thesis is that the land most responsive to these drivers is at the economic margin between grass-based production and cropping. Much of the eastern Dakotas is such an area, primarily under crop-based agriculture although grass remains an important land use. We surveyed land operators in the area on their views about motivators for land use choices. Their views are largely consistent with the economic margin viewpoint. The importance of crop output prices, crop input prices, innovations in cropping equipment and weather patterns on land use decisions grow as one moves north toward the economic margin. Land in more highly sloped areas is more sensitive to crop prices and crop insurance policies. Consistent with human capital theory, older operators are generally less responsive to factors that affect land use. Those renting more land, being more exposed to market forces, are more responsive. As farm size increases, respondents declared higher land use sensitivity to policy issues and technological innovations, suggesting that scale effects render land units more sensitive to land use change drivers.

<p class="sar-body"><span lang="EN-US">Land use changes have important implications on ecosystems and society. Detailed identification of the nature of land use changes in any local region is critical for policy design. In this paper, we quantify land use change in Iowa’s Loess Hills ecoregion, which contains much of the state’s remaining prairie grasslands. We employ two distinct panel datasets, the National Resource Inventory data and multi-year Cropland Data Layers, that allow us to characterize spatially-explicit land use change in the region over the period 1982-2010. We analyze land use trends, land use transitions and crop rotations within the ecoregion, and contrast these with county and state-level changes. To better comprehend the underlying land use changes, we evaluate our land use characterizing metrics conditional on soil quality variables such as slope and erodibility. We also consider the role of contemporary agricultural policy and commodity markets to seek explanations for land use changes during the period of our study. Although crop production has expanded on the Loess Hills landform since 2005, much of the expansion in corn acres has been from reduced soybean acreage. We find that out of the total 258 km² increase in corn acreage during 2005-’10, about 100 km² transitioned from soybeans. Data also indicate intensifying monoculture with higher percentage of corn plantings for two to four consecutive years during 2000-’10. In addition, crop production is found to have moved away from more heavily sloped land. Cropping does not appear to have increased on lands with higher crop productivity.</span></p>