Over the next few decades, many Western European countries will undergo a large demographic transformation introduced by the retirement of the "baby boomers" and the possibility of striking increases in longevity. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of a growing and ageing Dutch population on the future consumption of pharmaceuticals, so as to be able to anticipate the potential future emissions of these pharmaceuticals and their residues to surface waters. A total of 354 prescribed pharmaceuticals from 40 therapeutic groups was selected for study. These constitute 1.251 metric tonnes (98%) of the total Dutch consumption of prescribed pharmaceuticals in 2007. Calculations based on a fixed consumption rate (2007) predict that demographic developments can be expected to push consumption up to 1.504 metric tonnes in 2020 (+17%) and 1.851 metric tonnes by 2050 (+37%). Therapeutic groups showing the largest increase are related to illnesses associated with old age. The only groups showing a decrease are the antivirals and drugs for addiction treatments as well as ethinylestradiol, an active compound in contraceptives.

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BackgroundDiabetes mellitus brings an increased risk for cardiovascular complications and patients profit from prevention. This prevention also suits the general population. The question arises what is a better strategy: target the general population or diabetes patients.MethodsA mathematical programming model was developed to calculate optimal allocations for the Dutch population of the following interventions: smoking cessation support, diet and exercise to reduce overweight, statins, and medication to reduce blood pressure. Outcomes were total lifetime health care costs and QALYs. Budget sizes were varied and the division of resources between the general population and diabetes patients was assessed.ResultsFull implementation of all interventions resulted in a gain of 560,000 QALY at a cost of €640 per capita, about €12,900 per QALY on average. The large majority of these QALY gains could be obtained at incremental costs below €20,000 per QALY. Low or high budgets (below €9 or above €100 per capita) were predominantly spent in the general population. Moderate budgets were mostly spent in diabetes patients.ConclusionsMajor health gains can be realized efficiently by offering prevention to both the general and the diabetic population. However, a priori setting a specific distribution of resources is suboptimal. Resource allocation models allow accounting for capacity constraints and program size in addition to efficiency.

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