Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and advanced liver fibrosis are at the highest risk for progressing to end-stage liver disease. We constructed and validated a scoring system consisting of routinely measured and readily available clinical and laboratory data to separate NAFLD patients with and without advanced fibrosis. A total of 733 patients with NAFLD confirmed by liver biopsy were divided into 2 groups to construct (n ‫؍‬ 480) and validate (n ‫؍‬ 253) a scoring system. Routine demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were analyzed by multivariate modeling to predict presence or absence of advanced fibrosis. Age, hyperglycemia, body mass index, platelet count, albumin, and AST/ALT ratio were independent indicators of advanced liver fibrosis. A scoring system with these 6 variables had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 and 0.82 in the estimation and validation groups, respectively. By applying the low cutoff score (؊1.455), advanced fibrosis could be excluded with high accuracy (negative predictive value of 93% and 88% in the estimation and validation groups, respectively). By applying the high cutoff score (0.676), the presence of advanced fibrosis could be diagnosed with high accuracy (positive predictive value of 90% and 82% in the estimation and validation groups, respectively). By applying this model, a liver biopsy would have been avoided in 549 (75%) of the 733 patients, with correct prediction in 496 (90%). Conclusion: a simple scoring system accurately separates patients with NAFLD with and without advanced fibrosis, rendering liver biopsy for identification of advanced fibrosis unnecessary in a substantial proportion of patients. (HEPATOLOGY 2007;45:846-854.)

Continuous treatment with lamivudine delays clinical progression in patients with chronic hepatitis B and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis by significantly reducing the incidence of hepatic decompensation and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the lynchpin between steatosis and cirrhosis in the spectrum of nonalcoholic fatty liver disorders (NAFLD), was barely recognized in 1981. NAFLD is now present in 17% to 33% of Americans, has a worldwide distribution, and parallels the frequency of central adiposity, obesity, insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. NASH could be present in one third of NAFLD cases. Age, activity of steatohepatitis, and established fibrosis predispose to cirrhosis, which has a 7-to 10-year liver-related mortality of 12% to 25%. Many cases of cryptogenic cirrhosis are likely endstage NASH. While endstage NAFLD currently accounts for 4% to 10% of liver transplants, this may soon rise. Pathogenic concepts for NAFLD/NASH must account for the strong links with overnutrition and underactivity, insulin resistance, and genetic factors. Lipotoxicity, oxidative stress, cytokines, and other proinflammatory mediators may each play a role in transition of steatosis to NASH. The present "gold standard" management of NASH is modest weight reduction, particularly correction of central obesity achieved by combining dietary measures with increased physical activity. Whether achieved by "lifestyle adjustment" or anti-obesity surgery, this improves insulin resistance and reverses steatosis, hepatocellular injury, inflammation, and fibrosis. The same potential for "unwinding" fibrotic NASH is indicated by studies of the peroxisome proliferation activator receptor (PPAR)-␥ agonist "glitazones," but these agents may improve liver disease at the expense of worsening obesity. Future challenges are to approach NAFLD as a preventive public health initiative and to motivate affected persons to adopt a healthier lifestyle. (HEPATOLOGY 2006;43:S99-S112.)