Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is reflective of autonomic imbalance. However, its impact on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is unknown. We investigated the association between 10-s HRV and incident NAFLD. A cohort of 154,286 Korean adults with no NAFLD at baseline were followed up. 10-s electrocardiograms were used to estimate two time-domain HRV, the standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) and the root mean square of successive differences in RR intervals (RMSSD). Hepatic steatosis (HS) and liver fibrosis were assessed using ultrasonography and the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). A total of 27,279 incident HS (median follow up of 4.2 years) and 1250 incident HS plus high FIB-4 (median follow up of 4.2 years) cases were identified at follow-up. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) in a model with time-dependent variables for incident HS, comparing the lowest quintile to the highest and reference quintile of the RMSSD, was 1.43 (1.37–1.49), and the corresponding HR for incident HS plus intermediate/high FIB-4 was 1.70 (1.35–2.15). Similarly, SDNN was inversely associated with incident HS and HS plus intermediate/high FIB-4. The results were similar using the NAFLD fibrosis score. Autonomic imbalance assessed by HRV may help to identify individuals at a high risk of HS and its progression and warrant further studies.

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