This paper seeks to examine if the relative size of government (measured as the share of total expenditure in GNP can be determined to Granger cause the rate of economic growth, or if the rate of economic growth can be determined to Granger cause the relative size of government. For this purpose, we first use a bivariate error correction model within a Granger causality framework, as well as adding unemployment and inflation (separately) as explanatory variables, creating a simple 'trivariate' analysis for each of these two variables. The combined analysis of bivariate and trivariate tests offers a rich menu of possible causal patterns. Using data on Greece, UK and Ireland, the analysis shows: i) government size Granger causes economic growth in all countries of the sample in the short run and in the long run for Ireland and the UK; ii) economic growth Granger causes increases in the relative size of government in Greece, and, when inflation is included, in the UK. JEL classification codes: H21

No abstract

The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) is an interesting subject of research in the field of applied economics. This paper investigates the causal links between exports and output growth in the empirical framework of the Greek economy, using error-correction modelling and multivariate Granger causality. A sensitivity analysis based on impulse responses is implemented to check the robustness of the results. The estimation procedure generates robust results, indicating that the ELGH is not valid in the case of Greece. Furthermore, the empirical findings suggest a strong and consistent causation from output growth to export performance in the long-run.

No abstract

This article attempts to differentiate between the debatable tax and spend, spend and tax, fiscal synchronization and institutional separation hypotheses in order to explore empirically the interplay between public expenditures and public revenues in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) member states. For this purpose, panel data models are derived to test the validity of the four hypotheses in EMU countries. A notable characteristic of this article is that the four hypotheses are tested by dividing EMU countries into various subgroups and using disaggregated data for government expenditures and revenues. Seeking for the robustness of the empirical evidence, the panel data methods of Generalized Two-Stage Least Squares (GTSLS) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) are accordingly applied to identify the relationship between public outlays and taxation receipts. GTSLS and GMM results strongly support the fiscal synchronization hypothesis implying that budget decision-making is significantly influenced by both government expenditures and revenues components.