This rapid review synthesises evidence on the current size of the digital market, the countries promoting development of digital business and their approach through Trade Policies or Incentive Frameworks, and the current and potential size of the market with the UK / China / US / other significant countries. It draws on a variety of sources, including reports by international organisations (such as the World Bank and OECD), grey literature produced by think tanks and the private sector, and peer reviewed academic papers. A high proportion of estimates of the size of the digital economy come from research conducted by or for corporations and industry bodies, such as Google and the GSMA (which represents the telecommunications industry). Their research may be influenced by their business interests, the methodologies and data sources they utilise are often opaque, and the information required to critically assess findings is sometimes missing. Given this, the estimates presented in this review are best seen as ballpark figures rather than precise measurements. A limitation of this rapid evidence review stems from the lack of consistent methodologies for estimating the size of the digital economy. The OECD is attempting to develop a standard approach to measuring the digital economy across the national accounts of the G20, but this has not yet been finalised. This makes comparing the results of different studies very challenging. The problem is particularly stark in low income countries, where there are frequently huge gaps in the relevant data.

Vocational training systems in middle-income countries are going to face multiple challenges in the post-COVID era, notably, challenges related to (1) automation; (2) the transition to a green economy, and (3) demographic pressures. Of these, automation - linked to the burgeoning ‘fourth industrial revolution’ that is set to transform the global economy - represents the most serious challenge and is the only one of the three challenges discussed in any depth in this paper. Whilst estimates of the likely scale of automation in the coming years and decades vary widely, it appears likely that waves of automation will lead to a dramatic decline in many kinds of jobs that largely involve routine, repetitive tasks. These trends pre-date COVID-19, but the disruption caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity to prepare for these challenges by implementing vocational training system reforms as part of the Build Back Better agenda. Reforms to vocational training systems will be crucial to ensuring middle-income countries respond appropriately to accelerating labour market changes. However, they should only form a limited part of that response and need to be integrated with a wide range of other policy measures. Vocational training reform will need to occur in the context of major reforms to basic education in order to ensure that all workers are equipped with the cross-cutting cognitive and socio-emotional skills they will require to perform hard-to-automate tasks and to be able to learn and adapt rapidly in a changing economy. Middle-income countries will also likely need to progressively expand social protection schemes in order to provide a safety net for workers that struggle to adapt to changing labour market requirements.

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