SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)* High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries 1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world 3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health 4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low-and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium,

A case-comparison study was carried out to identify risk factors for mucosal manifestations of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) in southeast Brazil, using a series of 2820 patients, diagnosed with ACL between 1966 and 1999. The significant factors independently associated with mucosal leishmaniasis were: gender, age, nutritional status and length of disease. Mucosal leishmaniasis occurred 1.7 times more frequently among males than females; twice as often in individuals older than 22 years compared with the younger group; almost four times as often in individuals with severe malnutrition compared with those who were well nourished; and almost four times more frequently in individuals reporting the disease for more than 4 months compared with those reporting a shorter duration of the disease. Among individuals older than 22 years the risk of mucosal leishmaniasis increased significantly (from 1.9 to 9.6) as the nutritional status decreased, when compared with younger and well-nourished patients. The characteristics herein described and correlated with severe forms could be used as diagnostic markers as part of clinical screening in areas endemic for ACL.

Twenty Trypanosoma cruzi stocks attributed to the 19, 20, 39, and 32 clonal genotypes were comparatively studied in BALB/c mice during the acute and chronic phases of the infection to test the working hypothesis that T. cruzi clonal structure has a major impact on its biological properties. Fourteen parameters were assayed: (1) infectivity; (2) prepatent period; (3) patent period; (4) maximum of parasitemia; (5) day of maximum of parasitemia; (6) parasitemia; (7) mortality, (8) percentage of positive hemoculture, (9) tissue parasitism; (10) inflammatory process during the acute phase of the infection; (11) mortality, (12) percentage of positive hemoculture; (13) tissue parasitism; and (14) inflammatory process during the chronic phase of the infection. Statistical comparison showed that the results are overall consistent with the working hypothesis that biological differences are proportional to the evolutionary divergence among the genotypes. Thus, closely related genotypes (19 vs 20 and 32 vs 39) show in general fewer differences than distantly related groups (19 or 20 vs 32 or 39) except for the comparison between 19 and 32. The working hypothesis is even more strongly supported by the result of the nonparametric Mantel test, which showed a highly significant correlation (P = 2.3 x 10(-3)) between biological differences and genetic distances among all pairs of stocks. These data taken together emphasize that it is crucial to take into account the phylogenetic diversity of T. cruzi natural clones in all applied studies dealing with diagnosis, drug and vaccine design, epidemiological surveys, and clinical diversity of Chagas' disease. Index Descriptors and Abbreviations: Trypanosoma cruzi; phylogenetic distance; biological properties; clonal theory; multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MLEE); randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD); acute phase (AP); chronic phase (CP); days after inoculation (d.a.i.); liver infusion tryptose (LIT); gastrointestinal tract (GIT); genitourinary tract (GUT); percentage of infectivity (%INF); percentage of mortality during the acute phase (%MORT AP); percentage of mortality during the chronic phase (%MORT CP); prepatent period (PPP); patent period (PP); maximum of parasitemia (MP); day of maximum of parasitemia (DMP); parasitemia (PAR); percentage of positive hemoculture during the acute phase (% + HC AP); percentage of positive hemoculture during the chronic acute phase (% + HC CP); tissue parasitism (TP); inflammatory process (IP); tissue parasitism during the acute phase (TP AP); tissue parasitism during chronic phase (TP CP); inflammatory process during acute phase (IP AP); inflammatory process chronic phase (IP CP); Mann-Whitney test (MW); Kruskal-Wallis (KW); Kolmogorow-Smirnov test (KS).

SummaryBackgroundDiabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA1c. We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions.MethodsWe used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA1c (HbA1c ≥6·5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG ≥7·0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT ≥11·1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori.FindingsPopulation prevalence of diabetes based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r=0·98), but was higher by 2–6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA1c was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42·8% of age–sex–survey groups and higher in another 41·6%; in the other 15·6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA1c-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA1c 6·5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52·8% (95% CI 51·3–54·3%) and a pooled specificity of 99·74% (99·71–99·78%) compared with FPG 7·0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30·5% (28·7–32·3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA1c versus FPG.InterpretationDifferent biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA1c-based definition alo...