The major goal of this study was to identify and quantitatively describe the association between the characteristics of chronic (low-dose rate) exposure to (low LET) ionizing radiation and cellularity of peripheral blood cell lines. About 3,200 hemograms (i.e., spectra of blood counts) obtained over the years of maximal exposure to ionizing radiation (1950)(1951)(1952)(1953)(1954)(1955)(1956)) for inhabitants of the Techa River were used in analyses. The mean cumulative red bone marrow dose (with standard errors), calculated using Techa River Dosimetry System-2000, was 333.6 ± 4.6 mGy (SD = 259.9 mGy, max = 1151 mGy) to the year 1956. The statistical approach included both empirical methods for estimating frequencies of cytopenic states of the investigated blood cell lines (e.g. neutrophile, platelets, erythrocyte, etc.), and regression methods, including generalized linear models and logistic regressions which allowed taking into account confounding factors (e.g., attained age, age at maximal exposure, presence of concomitant diseases, and demographic characteristics). The results of the analyses demonstrated hematopoiesis inhibition manifested by a decrease in peripheral blood cellularity and an increase in the frequency of cytopenia in all blood cell lines (leukocytes, including lymphocytes, monocytes, neutrophiles, as well as platelets and erythrocytes). The intensity of hematopoiesis inhibition in the period of maximal exposures is determined by the combined influence of the dose rate and cumulative dose. The contribution of specific confounding factors was quantified and shown to be much less important than dose characteristics. The best predictor among dose characteristics was identified for each blood cell line. A 2-fold increase in dose rate is assumed to be a characteristic of radiosensitivity and a quantitative characteristic of the effect.

A new model of the hematopoietic system for humans chronically exposed to ionizing radiation allows for quantitative description of the initial hematopoiesis inhibition and subsequent increase in the risks of late stochastic effects such as leukemia. This model describes the dynamics of the hematopoietic stem cell compartment as well as the dynamics of each of the three blood cell types (leukocytes, erythrocytes, and platelets). The model parameters are estimated from the results of other experiments. They include the steady-state numbers of hematopoietic stem cells and peripheral blood cell lines for an unexposed organism, amplification parameters for each blood cell line, parameters describing the proliferation and apoptosis, parameters of feedback functions regulating the steady-state numbers, and characteristics of radiosensitivity in respect to cell death and non-lethal cell damages. The dynamic model of hematopoiesis is applied to the data on subcohort of the Techa River residents with hematological measurements (e.g., blood counts) performed in 1950–1956 (which totals to about 3,500 exposed individuals). Among well-described effects observed in these data are the slope value of the dose-effect curves describing the hematopoietic inhibition and the dose rate patterns of the fractions of cytopenic states (e.g., leukopenia, thrombocytopenia). The model has been further generalized by inclusion of the component describing the risk of late stochastic effects. The risks of the development of late effects (such as leukemia) in population groups with specific patterns of early reactions in hematopoiesis (such as leukopenia induced by ionizing radiation) are investigated using simulation studies and compared to data.

A new model of the hematopoietic system response in humans chronically exposed to ionizing radiation describes the dynamics of the hematopoietic stem cell compartment as well as the dynamics of each of the four blood cell types (lymphocytes, neutrophiles, erythrocytes, and platelets). The required model parameters were estimated based on available results of human and experimental animal studies. They include the steady-state number of hematopoietic stem cells and peripheral blood cell lines in an unexposed organism, amplification parameters for each blood line, parameters describing proliferation and apoptosis, parameters of feedback functions regulating the steady-state numbers, and characteristics of radiosensitivity related to cell death and non-lethal cell damage. The model predictions were tested using data on hematological measurements (e.g., blood counts) performed in 1950–1956 in the Techa River residents chronically exposed to ionizing radiation since 1949. The suggested model of hematopoiesis is capable of describing experimental findings in the Techa River Cohort, including: i) slopes of the dose-effect curves reflecting the inhibition of hematopoiesis due to chronic ionizing radiation, ii) delay in effect of chronic exposure and accumulated character of the effect, and iii) dose-rate patterns for different cytopenic states (e.g., leukopenia, thrombocytopenia).

The major goal of this study was to identify and quantitatively describe the association between the characteristics of chronic (low-dose rate) exposure to (low LET) ionizing radiation and cellularity of peripheral blood cell lines. About 3,200 hemograms (i.e., spectra of blood counts) obtained over the years of maximal exposure to ionizing radiation (1950)(1951)(1952)(1953)(1954)(1955)(1956)) for inhabitants of the Techa River were used in analyses. The mean cumulative red bone marrow dose (with standard errors), calculated using Techa River Dosimetry System-2000, was 333.6 ± 4.6 mGy (SD = 259.9 mGy, max = 1151 mGy) to the year 1956. The statistical approach included both empirical methods for estimating frequencies of cytopenic states of the investigated blood cell lines (e.g. neutrophile, platelets, erythrocyte, etc.), and regression methods, including generalized linear models and logistic regressions which allowed taking into account confounding factors (e.g., attained age, age at maximal exposure, presence of concomitant diseases, and demographic characteristics). The results of the analyses demonstrated hematopoiesis inhibition manifested by a decrease in peripheral blood cellularity and an increase in the frequency of cytopenia in all blood cell lines (leukocytes, including lymphocytes, monocytes, neutrophiles, as well as platelets and erythrocytes). The intensity of hematopoiesis inhibition in the period of maximal exposures is determined by the combined influence of the dose rate and cumulative dose. The contribution of specific confounding factors was quantified and shown to be much less important than dose characteristics. The best predictor among dose characteristics was identified for each blood cell line. A 2-fold increase in dose rate is assumed to be a characteristic of radiosensitivity and a quantitative characteristic of the effect.

A profound approach to the analysis of clinical data on the dynamics of major hematopoietic lineages (granulocytopoietic, thrombocytopoietic, and erythrocytopoietic systems) in chronically irradiated humans is proposed. It is based on recently developed mathematical models of these systems in humans, which enable one to study and interpret clinical hematological data. The developed approach is applied to the analysis of statistically processed clinical data, which were obtained under hematological examinations of residents of Techa riverside villages. These people were exposed to chronic irradiation with varying dose rate due to the radioactive contamination of the river basin by the Mayak Production Association. In the course of modeling studies, the relationship between the dynamics of aforementioned systems in examined individuals and the variation of chronic exposure dose rate over the considered period of time is revealed. It is found that the models are capable of reproducing common regularities and peculiarities of the dynamics of systems on hand, including the decreased stationary levels of blood cell concentrations during the period of maximum radiation exposure, the recovery processes during the period of decrease of exposure dose rate, and the prevalence of younger bone marrow granulocytopoietic cells over more mature ones during the entire period. The mechanisms of such effects of chronic irradiation on the hematopoietic lineages are revealed on the basis of modeling studies. All this testifies to the efficiency of employment of the developed models in the analysis, investigation, and prediction of effects of chronic irradiation on human hematopoietic system.