Based on the general idea of considering the stock price as the sum over future expected discounted dividends, a flexible approach for the modeling of discrete cash dividends is developed. From a theoretical perspective, such a viewpoint automatically implies an arbitrage-free modeling approach and allows for embedding almost any kind of commonly applied stock price model and dividend specification. The practical implications are discussed and a tractable pricing framework is presented. The proposed method is easy to implement whenever there exists an efficient tree approximation for the underlying driving process, which is an arbitrary martingale.
In this article, the dependence structure of the asset classes stocks, government bonds, and corporate bonds in different market environments and its implications on asset management are investigated for the US, European, and Asian market. Asset returns are modelled by a Markov-switching model which allows for two market regimes with completely different risk-return structures. Using major stock indices from all three regions, calm and turbulent market periods are identified for the time period between 1987 and 2009 and the correlation structures in the respective periods are compared. It turns out that the correlations between as well as within the asset classes under investigation are far from being stable and vary significantly between calm and turbulent market periods as well as in time. It also turns out that the US and European markets are much more integrated than the Asian and US/European ones. Moreover, the Asian market features more and longer turbulence phases. Finally, the impact of these findings is examined in a portfolio optimization context. To accomplish this, a case study using the mean-variance and the mean-conditional-value-at-risk framework as well as two levels of risk aversion is conducted. The results show that an explicit consideration of different market conditions in the modelling framework yields better portfolio performance as well as lower portfolio risk compared to standard approaches. These findings hold true for all investigated optimization frameworks and risk-aversion levels.
Min-stable multivariate exponential (MSMVE) distributions constitute an important family of distributions, among others due to their relation to extreme-value distributions. Being true multivariate exponential models, they also represent a natural choice when modeling default times in credit portfolios. Despite being well-studied on an abstract level, the number of known parametric families is small. Furthermore, for most families only implicit stochastic representations are known. The present paper develops new parametric families of MSMVE distributions in arbitrary dimensions. Furthermore, a convenient stochastic representation is stated for such models, which is helpful with regard to sampling strategies.
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