The ability to process optical signals without passing into the electrical domain has always attracted the attention of the research community. Processing photons by photons unfolds new scenarios, in principle allowing for unseen signal processing and computing capabilities. Optical computation can be seen as a large scientific field in which researchers operate, trying to find solutions to their specific needs by different approaches; although the challenges can be substantially different, they are typically addressed using knowledge and technological platforms that are shared across the whole field. This significant know-how can also benefit other scientific communities, providing lateral solutions to their problems, as well as leading to novel applications. The aim of this Roadmap is to provide a broad view of the state-of-the-art in this lively scientific research field and to discuss the advances required to tackle emerging challenges, thanks to contributions authored by experts affiliated to both academic institutions and high-tech industries. The Roadmap is organized so as to put side by side contributions on different aspects of optical processing, aiming to enhance the cross-contamination of ideas between scientists working in three different fields of photonics: optical gates and logical units, high bit-rate signal processing and optical quantum computing. The ultimate intent of this paper is to provide guidance for young scientists as well as providing research-funding institutions and stake holders with a comprehensive overview of perspectives and opportunities offered by this research field.
Background
Time-series forecasting has a critical role during pandemics as it provides essential information that can lead to abstaining from the spread of the disease. The novel coronavirus disease, COVID-19, is spreading rapidly all over the world. The countries with dense populations, in particular, such as India, await imminent risk in tackling the epidemic. Different forecasting models are being used to predict future cases of COVID-19. The predicament for most of them is that they are not able to capture both the linear and nonlinear features of the data solely.
Methods
We propose an ensemble model integrating an autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR). ARIMA models are used to extract the linear correlations and the NAR neural network for modeling the residuals of ARIMA containing nonlinear components of the data.
Comparison: Single ARIMA model, ARIMA-NAR model and few other existing models which have been applied on the COVID-19 data in different countries are compared based on performance evaluation parameters.
Result
The hybrid combination displayed significant reduction in RMSE(16.23%), MAE(37.89%) and MAPE (39.53%) values when compared with single ARIMA model for daily observed cases. Similar results with reduced error percentages were found for daily reported deaths and cases of recovery as well. RMSE value of our hybrid model was lesser in comparison to other models used for forecasting COVID-19 in different countries.
Conclusion
Results suggested the effectiveness of the new hybrid model over a single ARIMA model in capturing the linear as well as nonlinear patterns of the COVID-19 data.
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