An ensemble of regional climate simulations is analyzed to evaluate the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble average to simulate precipitation over Africa. All RCMs use a similar domain and spatial resolution of ;50 km and are driven by the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) (1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008). They constitute the first set of simulations in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in Africa (CORDEX-Africa) project. Simulated precipitation is evaluated at a range of time scales, including seasonal means, and annual and diurnal cycles, against a number of detailed observational datasets. All RCMs simulate the seasonal mean and annual cycle quite accurately, although individual models can exhibit significant biases in some subregions and seasons. The multimodel average generally outperforms any individual simulation, showing biases of similar magnitude to differences across a number of observational datasets. Moreover, many of the RCMs significantly improve the precipitation climate compared to that from their boundary condition dataset, that is, ERA-Interim. A common problem in the majority of the RCMs is that precipitation is triggered too early during the diurnal cycle, although a small subset of models does have a reasonable representation of the phase of the diurnal cycle. The systematic bias in the diurnal cycle is not improved when the ensemble mean is considered. Based on this performance analysis, it is assessed that the present set of RCMs can be used to provide useful information on climate projections over Africa.

Some plant growth models require estimates of leaf area and absorbed radiation for simulating evapotranspiration and photosynthesis. Previous studies indicated that spectral reflectance, absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and leaf area index (LAI) are interrelated. The objective of this study was to establish a procedure by which spectral reflectance can be used to simultaneously estimate PAR absorption and LAI. A method is presented for estimating the quantity of absorbed PAR by wheat (Triticum aestivumL.) plants and their LAI based on the normalized difference (ND), transformation of the near infrared (ρn= 800 to 1100 nm) and red (ρr= 600 to 700 nm) canopy reflectances. The results, from a theoretical analysis and field measurements, indicated that ND correlates with the fraction of PAR absorbed by wheat canopies. Bare soil reflectance and scattering of near infrared radiation by foliage elements were the major factors that influenced the relation between ND and PAR absorption. The estimated PAR absorption values, based on the ND, and four classes of assumed leaf angles (45°, 60°, 75°, and spherical), were used to indirectly evaluate LAI of wheat for three different geographical locations. The standard deviation on mean predicted to measured LAI's for the three locations varied from 0.5 to 0.9 for a range of 0 to 6 LAI. The method is considerably less sensitive in predicting LAI above 6.0 since the sensitivity of ND to changes in LAI becomes small (<0.01), due to small changes in canopy reflectance.

Reducing risks of severe outcomes and improving chances of limiting warming to 2°C