The large majority of existing earth dams were designed with old standards, which often accounted for the effects of earthquakes in a simplified manner. As a result, seismic re-evaluation of these structures is now becoming increasingly important for dam owners. The seismic performance of earth dams can be evaluated at different levels of resolution, typically ranging from simple sliding block analysis, to the use of advanced numerical models. Seismic inputs for these models are typically chosen using code-based or site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In this study, we analyze the seismic vulnerability of two major earth dams located in Southern Italy, a seismically active area. The two dam systems have different geotechnical characteristics: one of them is founded on potentially liquefiable materials, whereas the other one is not susceptible to liquefaction. Our analyses are based on finite difference numerical simulations using both simplified and advanced constitutive models. Seismic vulnerability of both dams is analyzed by means of analytical fragility functions for various damage mechanisms and ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Such fragility functions are based on nonlinear deformation analyses within the multiple stripe analysis framework. We analyze efficiency and predictability of various IMs in predicting different damage levels and mechanisms. We show that the cumulative absolute velocity is overall the optimal IM in predicting vulnerability of both earth dams. We also analyze the relative importance of PSHA inputs (i.e. alternative ground motion and earthquake rupture forecast models; GMMs and ERFMs, respectively) and numerical models (simplified vs advanced) in the seismic analysis of earth dams by means of tornado diagrams. We show that the choice of GMMs and ERFMs is always more important than that of the constitutive model. However, for dams prone to liquefaction, the choice of the constitutive model has a higher importance than for non-liquefiable earth dams.

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We investigate peculiar characteristics of ground motions in Southern Italy (e.g. apparent fast anelastic attenuation and trends of event terms at different periods) using a comprehensive dataset of earthquake recordings between 1969 and 2020. By doing so, we gained insights into the relative performance of eight selected region-specific, global, and global with regional adjustment ground motion models (GMMs). Our analysis is performed using a preliminary dataset (i.e. including all ground motions recorded in the area for the selected analysis period) and an independent dataset (i.e. comprising data not used to develop the models). We analyze total residuals, event terms, within-even residuals, and residuals standardized by model standard deviations (i.e. epsilon). The latter is performed to obtain a robust comparison of GMMs with different standard deviation types and levels. These approaches are employed to ground motion characterization studies for the first time in this region. Our results show that in Southern Italy, there is an apparent anelastic attenuation of the ground motion faster than in other seismic districts. Overall, regional models capture this feature better than global models. Regional adjustments to global models better capture the observed anelastic attenuation at large distances. Using the standardized residuals analysis, we observe that all selected GMMs systematically underestimate the observed ground motion for relatively high ground motion levels and its variability at any intensity levels in the study region. These outcomes may help improving future ground motion models and related engineering applications involving such models in performance-based frameworks.