Health spending growth in the United States is projected to average 5.8 percent for 2014-24, reflecting the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging. Recent historically low growth rates in the use of medical goods and services, as well as medical prices, are expected to gradually increase. However, in part because of the impact of continued cost-sharing increases that are anticipated among health plans, the acceleration of these growth rates is expected to be modest. The health share of US gross domestic product is projected to rise from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 19.6 percent in 2024.

In 2010, US health spending is estimated to have grown at a historic low of 3.9 percent, due in part to the effects of the recently ended recession. In 2014, national health spending growth is expected to reach 8.3 percent when major coverage expansions from the Affordable Care Act of 2010 begin. The expanded Medicaid and private insurance coverage are expected to increase demand for health care significantly, particularly for prescription drugs and physician and clinical services. Robust growth in Medicare enrollment, expanded Medicaid coverage, and premium and cost-sharing subsidies for exchange plans are projected to increase the federal government share of health spending from 27 percent in 2009 to 31 percent by 2020. This article provides perspective on how the nation's health care dollar will be spent over the coming decade as the health sector moves quickly toward its new paradigm of expanded insurance coverage. N ational health spending is expected to grow 5.8 percent per year for the period 2010 through 2020, 1.1 percentage points faster than the expected average annual rise in gross domestic product. As a result, the health share of the gross domestic product is projected to increase from 17.6 percent in 2009 to 19.8 percent by 2020.1 During this period, we expect that the Affordable Care Act of 2010 will reduce the number of uninsured people by nearly thirty million, lead to prescription drugs and physician services accounting for a greater share of health spending than would have been the case otherwise, and contribute to an increase in the government-sponsored (federal, state, and local) share of health spending to just under 50 percent by 2020.In this article we review some highlights of overall projected spending trends in several time periods; summarize our methods and assumptions; then provide an outlook for major health industry sectors, payers, and sponsors. In so doing, we provide perspective on how the nation's health care dollar will be spent over the coming decade as the health sector moves quickly toward its new paradigm of expanded insurance coverage. 2010National health spending is estimated to have reached $2.6 trillion in 2010, reflecting a growth rate of 3.9 percent over the previous year, which is slightly slower than the previous historic low growth rate of 4.0 percent in 2009 (Exhibits 1 and 2).2 Growth in nominal gross domestic product (that is, not adjusted for inflation) accelerated to 3.8 percent in 2010 from −1.7 percent in 2009.3 Because the rate of economic growth has accelerated and the projected rate of growth of health spending is similar, the health share of gross domestic product is projected to remain unchanged in 2010 at 17.6 percent. This is in

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Under current law, national health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent for 2016-25 and represent 19.9 percent of gross domestic product by 2025. For 2016, national health expenditure growth is anticipated to have slowed 1.1 percentage points to 4.8 percent, as a result of slower Medicaid and prescription drug spending growth. For the rest of the projection period, faster projected growth in medical prices is partly offset by slower projected growth in the use and intensity of medical goods and services, relative to that observed in 2014-16 associated with the Affordable Care Act coverage expansions. The insured share of the population is projected to increase from 90.9 percent in 2015 to 91.5 percent by 2025.

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