We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing that is aimed at assessing banks’ capital adequacy, financial fragility, and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on which it is based. Also, for illustrative purposes and to show in practical terms how to apply the methodology and the types of outcomes and analysis that can be obtained, we report the results of an empirical application of the methodology proposed to the Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIB) banks. The results of the stress test exercise are compared with the results of the supervisory stress tests performed in 2014 by the Federal Reserve and EBA/ECB.

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a stochastic simulation optimization system. This methodology enables users to derive the critical combination of risk factors that, by triggering a preset key capital indicator threshold, causes the bank’s default, thus detecting the set of assumptions that defines the reverse stress test scenario. This article presents a theoretical presentation of the approach, providing a general description of the stochastic framework and, for illustrative purposes, an example of the application of the proposed methodology to the Italian banking sector, in order to illustrate the possible advantages of the approach in a simplified framework, which highlights the basic functioning of the model. In the paper, we also show how to take into account some relevant risk factor interactions and second round effects such as liquidity–solvency interlinkage and modeling of Pillar 2 risks including interest rate risk, sovereign risk, and reputational risk. The reverse stress test technique presented is a practical and manageable risk assessment approach, suitable for both micro- and macro-prudential analysis.

The research question of this paper is concerned with the investigation of the links between Internet of Things and related big data as input parameters for stochastic estimates in business planning and corporate evaluation analytics. Financial forecasts and company appraisals represent a core corporate ownership and control issue, impacting on stakeholder remuneration, information asymmetries, and other aspects. Optimal business planning and related corporate evaluations derive from an equilibrated mix of top-down and bottom-up approaches. While the former follows a traditional dirigistic methodology where companies set up their strategic goals, the latter are grass-rooted with big data-driven timely evidence. Real options can be embedded in big data-driven forecasting to make expected cash flows more flexible and resilient, improving Value for Money of the investment and reducing its risk profile. More accurate and timely big data-driven predictions reduce uncertainties and information asymmetries, making risk management easier and decreasing the cost of capital. Whereas stochastic modeling is traditionally used for budgeting and business planning, this probabilistic process is seldom nurtured by big data that can refresh forecasts in real time, improving their predictive ability. Combination of big data and stochastic estimates for corporate appraisal and governance issues represents a methodological innovation that goes beyond the traditional literature and practice.

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