High-resolution 230 Th ages and stable isotope (δ 18 O and δ 13 C) records from a stalagmite that grew between 39 and 2 ka in Incesu Cave located in south-central Anatolia allow us to evaluate paleoclimate conditions for growth periods during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene. High δ 18 O values and Heinrich events H3 and H4 are observed during the MIS3 interval. After a dry period in the Younger Dryas, low values between ca. 10 and 5.3 ka suggest a transition to wet mid-to early Holocene conditions. In the early Holocene, there are drier periods at 9.4 and 10.3 ka, coincident with cooling events recorded in the North Atlantic sediments and, after 5.3 ka a relatively dry late Holocene is seen. The IN-01 isotope record is in phase with general trends of speleothem records in Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean but differs in detail at the millennial scale. The more depleted δ 18 O values of IN-01 compared to those of Eastern Mediterranean speleothems during the Holocene indicate that central Anatolian winter rainfall was isotopically influenced by the same air mass trajectories derived from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean with an isotopic rain shadow effect.

Objective: Multiple pregnancies occurred more frequently with being widespread of the assisted reproduction techniques. The recent researches showed that the possibility of multiple pregnancies has been increased by some factors such as twin pregnancy experience in the family, mothers at later ages, social properties and the number of live-born infants. The main aim of this study is to identify the statistically significant factors affecting the multiple pregnancies using count data models. Material and Methods: In this study, the number of babies born alive for the pregnant who have multiple pregnancy diagnose are considered in 2015 for a specific location, Ankara province in Turkey. For this purpose, the effects of mother's age, the number of pregnancy, the method of delivery, mother's blood type and previous births of the mother are statistically analyzed using various count data models. Results: Quasi Poisson and Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM) regression models are used due to under-dispersion problem and these models are compared for the data set. As a result of comparison, the advantage of COM Poisson regression to other count regression models are illustrated with a real data set. According to results of COM Poisson, the number of pregnant and method of delivery (specifically cesarean type) has significant impact on the number of live-born infants at %99 significance level and the blood type of pregnant has significant impact at %95 significance level. However, the cesarean delivery has negative impact on the number of live-born infants. Conclusion: The main indicator of existence of under-dispersion is significant so fitting COMPoisson to the data in this study is meaningful. For the model selection, based on AIC values of Poisson and COM-Poisson models, the latter one is smaller hence fits better. After recovering the problem of underdispersion for the count data with COM Poisson regression, the number of pregnancy and the method of delivery has been determined as the best predictor. Besides, the blood types were identified as additional explanatory variable, but with lower significance level.Keywords: Multiple Pregnancy; quasi poisson regression; under-dispersion, COM Poisson regression ÖZET Amaç: Günümüzde yardımcı üreme tekniklerinin giderek yaygınlaşması ile çoğul gebeliklere daha sık rastlanmaya başlanmıştır. Son yıllarda yapılan araştırmalara göre, ailede daha önceden ikiz gebelik olması, ileri anne yaşı, toplumsal özellikler ve canlı doğan bebek sayısı gibi faktörlerin çoklu gebelik görülme olasılığını artırdığı gözlemlenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın esas amacı çoğul gebelikleri etkileyen istatistiksel olarak anlamlı faktörleri sayım modelleri kullanarak belirlemektir. Gereç ve Yöntemler: Bu çalışmada 2015 yılında Ankara ilinde çoklu gebelik tanısı konmuş gebelerin doğum sonuçlarına göre canlı doğan bebek sayısı dikkate alınmıştır. Bu amaçla, annenin yaşı, kaçıncı gebeliği olduğu, doğum yöntemi, kan grubu ve önceki doğum durumu gibi faktörlerin etkileri istatistiksel olarak sayım modelleri kullanı...