Objective Unrealistic pessimism (UP) is an aspect of overestimation of threat (OET) that has been associated with obsessive‐compulsive disorder/symptoms (OCD/OCS). During the COVID‐19 pandemic, UP may have played an important role in the course of OCD. To investigate the relationship, we conducted two longitudinal studies assuming that higher UP predicts an increase in OCS. Method In Study 1, we investigated UP in the general population ( N = 1,184) at the start of the pandemic asking about overall vulnerability to infection with SARS‐CoV‐2 and UP regarding infection and outcome of severe illness. Further, OCS status (OCS+/−) was assessed at the start of the pandemic and 3 months later. In Study 2, we investigated UP in individuals with OCD ( N = 268) regarding the likelihood of getting infected, recovering, or dying from an infection with SARS‐CoV‐2 at the start of the pandemic and re‐assessed OCS 3 months later. Results In Study 1, UP was higher in the OCS+ compared to the OCS− group, and estimates of a higher overall vulnerability for an infection predicted a decrease in OCS over time. UP regarding severe illness predicted an increase in symptoms over time. In Study 2, UP was found for a recovery and death after an infection with SARS‐CoV‐2, but not for infection itself. Conclusions Exaggeration of one’s personal vulnerability rather than OET per se seems pivotal in OCD, with UP being associated with OCD/OCS+ as well as a more negative course of symptomatology over the pandemic in a nonclinical sample. Practitioner points Unrealistic optimism, a bias common in healthy individuals, is thought to be a coping mechanism promoting well‐being in the face of danger or uncertainty. The current study extends findings that its inversion, unrealistic pessimism, may play an important role in obsessive‐compulsive disorder and may also be involved in the development of the disorder. This study highlights the importance that prevention programs during a pandemic should include targeting unrealistic pessimism.