In this paper we develop a model to estimate nitrogen loading to watersheds and receiving waters, and then apply the model to gain insight about sources, losses, and transport of nitrogen in groundwater moving through a coastal watershed. The model is developed from data of the Waquoit Bay Land Margin Ecosystems Research project (WBLMER), and from syntheses of published information. The WBLMER nitrogen loading model first estimates inputs by atmospheric deposition, fertilizer use, and wastewater to surfaces of the major types of land use (natural vegetation, turf, agricultural land, residential areas, and impervious surfaces) within the landscape. Then, the model estimates losses of nitrogen in the various compartments of the watershed ecosystem. For atmospheric and fertilizer nitrogen, the model allows losses in vegetation and soils, in the vadose zone, and in the aquifer. For wastewater nitrogen, the model allows losses in septic systems and effluent plumes, and it adds further losses that occur during diffuse transport within aquifers. The calculation of losses is done separately for each major type of land cover, because the processes and loss rates involved differ for different tesserae of the land cover mosaic. If groundwater flows into a freshwater body, the model adds a loss of nitrogen for traversing the freshwater body and then subjects the surviving nitrogen to losses in the aquifer. The WBLMER model is developed for Waquoit Bay, but with inputs for local conditions it is applicable to other rural to suburban watersheds underlain by unconsolidated sandy sediments. Model calculations suggest that the atmosphere contributes 56%, fertilizer 14%, and wastewater 27% of the nitrogen delivered to the surface of the watershed of Waquoit Bay. Losses within the watershed amount to 89% of atmospheric nitrogen, 79% of fertilizer nitrogen, and 65% of wastewater nitrogen. The net result of inputs to the watershed surface and losses within the watershed is that wastewater becomes the largest source (48%) of nitrogen loads to receiving estuaries, followed by atmospheric deposition (30%) and fertilizer use (15%). The nitrogen load to estuaries of Waquoit Bay is transported primarily through land parcels covered by residential areas (39%, mainly via wastewater), natural vegetation (21%, by atmospheric deposition), and turf (16%, by atmospheric deposition and fertilizers). Other land covers were involved in lesser throughputs of nitrogen. The model results have implications for management of coastal landscapes and water quality. Most attention should be given to wastewater disposal within the watershed, particularly within 200 m of the shore. Rules regarding setbacks of septic system location relative to shore and nitrogen retention ability of septic systems, will be useful in control of wastewater nitrogen loading. Installation of multiple conventional leaching fields or septic systems in high‐flow parcels could be one way to increase nitrogen retention. Control of fertilizer use can help to a modest degree, particularly...

Abstract. In this paper we develop a model to estimate nitrogen loading to watersheds and receiving waters, and then apply the model to gain insight about sources, losses, and transport of nitrogen in groundwater moving through a coastal watershed. The model is developed from data of the Waquoit Bay Land Margin Ecosystems Research project (WBLMER), and from syntheses of published information.The WBLMER nitrogen loading model first estimates inputs by atmospheric deposition, fertilizer use, and wastewater to surfaces of the major types of land use (natural vegetation, turf, agricultural land, residential areas, and impervious surfaces) within the landscape. Then, the model estimates losses of nitrogen in the various compartments of the watershed ecosystem. For atmospheric and fertilizer nitrogen, the model allows losses in vegetation and soils, in the vadose zone, and in the aquifer. For wastewater nitrogen, the model allows losses in septic systems and effluent plumes, and it adds further losses that occur during diffuse transport within aquifers. The calculation of losses is done separately for each major type of land cover, because the processes and loss rates involved differ for different tesserae of the land cover mosaic. If groundwater flows into a freshwater body, the model adds a loss of nitrogen for traversing the freshwater body and then subjects the surviving nitrogen to losses in the aquifer. The WBLMER model is developed for Waquoit Bay, but with inputs for local conditions it is applicable to other rural to suburban watersheds underlain by unconsolidated sandy sediments.Model calculations suggest that the atmosphere contributes 56%, fertilizer 14%, and wastewater 27% of the nitrogen delivered to the surface of the watershed of Waquoit Bay. Losses within the watershed amount to 89% of atmospheric nitrogen, 79% of fertilizer nitrogen, and 65% of wastewater nitrogen. The net result of inputs to the watershed surface and losses within the watershed is that wastewater becomes the largest source (48%) of nitrogen loads to receiving estuaries, followed by atmospheric deposition (30%) and fertilizer use (15%).The nitrogen load to estuaries of Waquoit Bay is transported primarily through land parcels covered by residential areas (39%, mainly via wastewater), natural vegetation (21%, by atmospheric deposition), and turf (16%, by atmospheric deposition and fertilizers). Other land covers were involved in lesser throughputs of nitrogen.The model results have implications for management of coastal landscapes and water quality. Most attention should be given to wastewater disposal within the watershed, particularly within 200 m of the shore. Rules regarding setbacks of septic system location relative to shore and nitrogen retention ability of septic systems, will be useful in control of wastewater nitrogen loading. Installation of multiple conventional leaching fields or septic systems in high-flow parcels could be one way to increase nitrogen retention. Control of fertilizer use can help to a modest degree, part...

We have developed a dynamic nitrogen loading model (NLM) that incorporates temporal and spatial trends in land use with a three‐dimensional ground water model. In conjunction with historical patterns of land use in the Waquoit Bay (USA) watershed, we have modified an existing steady‐state watershed NLM to estimate historical and future rates of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) to the coastal margins of Waquoit Bay and its subestuaries. The model simulations indicated a significant increase in nitrogen loading to these systems in recent decades. We estimated that the TDN loading rate to Waquoit Bay increased from approximately 5000 to 23 000 kg yr−1 (0.8 to 3.7 g N m−2 yr−1) from 1930 to 1990. We also compared the dynamic model with steady‐state simulations where the lag effect of ground water travel time was not considered. These results indicate occasional significant differences (up to 37%) between the two modeling methods, especially between 1950 and 1990, when large areas of naturally vegetated and agricultural land within the watershed were converted to unsewered residential housing. Although all subestuaries experienced similar temporal trends in nitrogen load, heterogeneity in the timing, source, and magnitude indicates that these factors are dependent upon watershed size, shape, and spatio‐temporal trends in land use.

/ There can be considerable uncertainty associated with calculations of nutrient loading to estuaries from their watersheds, arising from uncertainty in the variables used in the calculation. Analysis of uncertainty is particularly important in the context of planning and management, where such information can be useful in helping make decisions about development in the coastal zone and in risk assessment, where probability of worse-case extremes may be relevant. This fact has been largely ignored when loading calculations have been made, presumably because both uncertainty estimates for the input variables and a standard method were lacking. Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr(-1). The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12-14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumera...