Summary: This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways (e.g. by using multi-factor modelling instead of augmented CAPM, application of moving window panel regressions, orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk). The main innovation lies in testing implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and exposure. Based on time series data of German DAX companies, DM/ dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, timevariant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/GDP and negatively affected by imports/GDP as well as by significant deviations of the dollar price from its long-run median. The first two findings are in line with the presumption that exporting corporations benefit from dollar price increases, whereas importing corporations benefit from dollar price decreases. The last finding can be explained by higher exchange rate adjustment costs in case of substantial deviations from the long-run median level. Furthermore, there is indication of asymmetric adjustment costs as effects from appreciations of domestic currency appear to be smaller than from depreciations.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the association between the stock returns of German DAX corporations and movements of the U.S. Dollar. The link turns out to be rather unstable, but it depends significantly on direction and magnitude of foreign trade, and on the existing level of the DM/ Dollar exchange rate. This conclusion is based on exchange-rate-exposure and APT-modelling, as well as on panel data on the performance of 28 German DAX corporations, inclusion of macroeconomic risk factors, data on export and import involvement, and on econometric panel, GLS, SUR and cointegration techniques.
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Summary:We estimate the Dollar exposure of German DAX corporations. Our results are based on a new time-variant, APT-based and panel econometric extension of the exchange-rate exposure model in the tradition of Adler and Dumas (1984) and Jorion (1990). Our stock market data consist of 28 performance indices of German DAX corporations. We include macroeconomic risk factors, and data on export and import involvement. Dollar exposures turn out to differ between exporters and importers and they are rather unstable over time. In contrast to most previous studies in the literature that find little evidence of exposure, we confirm recent results of who report that higher foreign involvement corresponds to higher exposure at least in Germany. Moreover, our findings suggest that exposure also depends on the prevailing level of the Dollar exchange rate.
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