Traditional risk factors of cardiovascular death in the general population, including body mass index (BMI), serum cholesterol, and blood pressure (BP), are also found to relate to outcomes in the geriatric population, but in an opposite direction. Some degrees of elevated BMI, serum cholesterols, and BP are reportedly associated with lower – instead of higher – risk of death among the elderly. This phenomenon is termed “reverse epidemiology” or “risk factor paradox” (such as obesity paradox) and is also observed in a variety of chronic disease states such as end-stage renal disease requiring dialysis, chronic heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, and AIDS. Several possible causes are hypothesized to explain this risk factor reversal: competing short-term and long-term killers, improved hemodynamic stability in the obese, adipokine protection against tumor necrosis factor-α, lipoprotein protection against endotoxins, and lipophilic toxin sequestration by the adipose tissue. It is possible that the current thresholds for intervention and goals levels for such traditional risk factors as BMI, serum cholesterol, and BP derived based on younger populations do not apply to the elderly, and that new levels for such risk factors should be developed for the elderly population. Reverse epidemiology of conventional cardiovascular risk factors may have a bearing on the management of the geriatric population, thus it deserves further attention.

Background: Previous studies have not shown a consistent link between body mass index (BMI) and outcomes such as mortality and kidney disease progression in non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Therefore, we aimed to complete a systematic review and meta-analysis study on this subject. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and screened 7,123 retrieved studies for inclusion. Two investigators independently selected the studies using predefined criteria and assessed each study's quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale. We meta-analyzed the results based on the BMI classification system by the WHO. Results: We included 10 studies (with a total sample size of 484,906) in the systematic review and 4 studies in the meta-analyses. The study results were generally heterogeneous. However, following reanalysis of the largest reported study and our meta-analyses, we observed that in stage 3-5 CKD, being underweight was associated with a higher risk of death while being overweight or obese class I was associated with a lower risk of death; however, obesity classes II and III were not associated with risk of death. In addition, reanalysis of the largest available study showed that a higher BMI was associated with an incrementally higher risk of kidney disease progression; however, this association was attenuated in our pooled results. For earlier stages of CKD, we could not complete meta-analyses as the studies were sparse and had heterogeneous BMI classifications and/or referent BMI groups. Conclusion: Among the group of patients with stage 3-5 CKD, we found a differential association between obesity classes I-III and mortality compared to the general population, indicating an obesity paradox in the CKD population.

Background: A higher body mass index (BMI) seems to be linked to survival advantage in maintenance hemodialysis patients. However, it is uncertain if this ‘obesity survival paradox' is also observed in kidney transplant recipients. Hence, we systematically reviewed the literature on the impact of pre-transplantation BMI on all-cause mortality in this population. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Cochrane CENTRAL for relevant studies up to July 2013. Two investigators independently selected the studies using predefined criteria, abstracted the data from the included studies, and independently assessed each study's quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale. In addition to the qualitative synthesis, we quantitatively pooled the results of the studies with clinical, methodological, and statistical homogeneity. Results: We screened 7,123 records, from which we included 11 studies (with a total of 305,392 participants) in this systematic review and 4 studies in the meta-analyses. In the only study that included children, obesity was linked to higher mortality in children of 6-12 years old. For adults, our meta-analyses indicated that compared to normal BMI, underweight [Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.09; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.02-1.20], overweight (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.04-1.12), and obese (HR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.14-1.23) levels of BMI were associated with higher mortality. Conclusion: The presence of the obesity survival paradox is unlikely in kidney transplant recipients since both extremes of pre-transplantation BMI are linked to higher mortality in this population.

Over the short-term, being underweight was associated with higher mortality and being overweight or obese was associated with lower mortality. The associations of body mass with mortality were not significant over the long-term.