Since nutrients are emitted and mobilized in river basins, causing eutrophication of water bodies, it is important to reduce such emissions and subsequent nutrient loads. Due to processes of attenuation, nutrient loads are reduced during their mobilization in river basins. At the mouth of the Río Verde basin in western Mexico, the El Purgatorio dam is being constructed to supply water to the metropolitan area of the second most populated city in the country, Guadalajara. To analyze situations that allow protecting this future dam from eutrophication, nutrient loads in the mouth of the river basin were determined and their reduction scenarios evaluated by using the NEWS2 (Nutrient Export from Watersheds) model. For this, a nutrient emissions inventory was established and used to model nutrient loads, and modeling results were compared to an analysis of water quality data from two different monitoring sites located on the river. The results suggest that 96% of nitrogen and 99% of phosphorus emissions are attenuated in the watershed. Nutrient loads reaching the mouth of the river basin come mainly from wastewater discharges, followed by livestock activities and different land uses, and loads are higher as emissions are located closer to the mouth of the river basin. To achieve and maintain mesotrophic state of water in the future dam, different nutrient emission reduction scenarios were evaluated. According to these results, the reduction of 90% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emissions or 75% of the phosphorus loads in wastewater emissions and at least 50% in emissions from livestock activities in the river basin are required.