No abstract

Due to a high competition in the market, the telecom operators are affected by churn, therefore it is very important for them to identify which users are likely to leave them and switch to the competition telecom company. This research uses data on behaviour of the users from telecom systems that serve to identify patterns in behaviours and thereby recognize the churn. Creating new definition of prepaid soft churn based on multiple conditions is valuable contribution of this paper. At preparing data, a selection of useful attributes was made using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The normalization of the attribute values has also been made in order to obtain a proper balance of the influence of all the attributes. Common problem with telecom churn prediction data is imbalance, taking into account the target variable. Such a case is also in the data used in this paper, where the percentage of churners is 12%. Comparison of undersampling and oversampling was performed as a method for resolving the data imbalance problem. Data sets with undersampling and oversasmpling have been used to train the decision tree, logistic regression and neural network algorithms and therefore six prediction models for detecting the churn of the Prepaid users in the telecom were created in this paper. Performance analysis and comparison of the six developed Data mining models was also performed.

No abstract

Due to strong competition in the telecom market, telecom companies are facing customer churn problems. For telecom, it is very important to predict the churn of a user to be able to prevent it. Marketing campaigns can be used to prevent churn and thus prevent a decrease in revenue. Usually, the churn prediction is based on behavioural user data, which describes user activity and general user data. In our prediction model, we added social network attributes that describe the social influence of other users on the user's decision to make a churn. Besides standard centrality measures, we developed two new social attributes, which measure the social influence of already churned users. To determine if social network attributes aid in churn prediction precision we created and compared the models based only on the behavioural data and the models with the social attributes and behavioural data. In our work, we propose upgrading the standard Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) model with the part of the model related to Social Network Analysis (SNA), and we use the proposed model in our research. We show that the AutoML can be used to successfully predict telecom churn based on the real data from telecom operators from Bosnia and Herzegovina.