1. Lake food webs can be supported by primary production from within the lake, organic matter imported from the catchment or some mixture of these two sources. Generalisations about food-web subsidies to lake ecosystems are often based on data from only a few ecosystems and therefore do not consider the potential variability of subsidies among diverse ecosystems in a landscape. 2. We measured the variation among lake ecosystems in terrestrial (allochthonous) utilisation by pelagic consumers and developed models to describe the variability. Stable isotope ratios of hydrogen and carbon were measured for Chaoborus spp. and crustacean zooplankton taxa in 40 lakes to quantify consumer allochthonous resource use (allochthony). 3. The median fraction of consumer allochthony estimated using a two-source Bayesian mixing model varied between 4 and 82% (mean among all lakes = 36%) for Chaoborus sp. among lakes and between 1 and 76% in a more limited sample of crustacean zooplankton consumers. The degree of allochthonous resource use increased linearly with the availability of allochthonous resources. 4. Terrestrial support of Chaoborus was correlated (using best fitting relationships) with covariates for lake organic matter sources including dissolved inorganic carbon, total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, colour and catchment area. However, the most parsimonious model was an inverse relationship between lake surface area and consumer allochthony, indicating that allochthonous subsidies are more important in smaller than larger systems. Given the preponderance of small waterbodies, allochthonous subsidies are important in a large number of lake ecosystems.

[1] Aquatic ecosystems are hotspots of decomposition and sources of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere that are globally significant. Carbon exported from land (allochthonous) also supplements the carbon fixed by photosynthesis in aquatic ecosystems (autochthonous), contributing to the organic matter (OM) that supports aquatic consumers. Although the presence of terrestrial compounds in aquatic OM is well known, the contribution of terrestrial versus aquatic sources to the composition of OM has been quantified for only a handful of systems. Here we use stable isotopes of hydrogen and carbon to demonstrate that the terrestrial contribution (Φ Terr ) to particulate organic matter (POM) is as large or larger (mean = 54.6% terrestrial) than the algal contribution in 39 lakes of the northern highlands region of Wisconsin and Michigan. Further, the largest carbon pool, dissolved organic matter (DOM), is strongly dominated by allochthonous material (mean for the same set of lakes approximately 100% terrestrial). Among lakes, increases in terrestrial contribution to POM are significantly correlated with more acidic pH. Extrapolating this relationship using a survey of pH in 1692 lakes in the region reveals that, with the exception of eutrophic lakes, most of the OM in lakes is of terrestrial origin. These results are consistent with the growing evidence that lakes are significant conduits for returning degraded terrestrial carbon to the atmosphere.

There is widespread evidence that aquatic consumers use terrestrial resources depending on the features of surrounding catchments.

Directional change in environmental drivers sometimes triggers regime shifts in ecosystems. Theory and experiments suggest that regime shifts can be detected in advance, and perhaps averted, by monitoring resilience indicators such as variance and autocorrelation of key ecosystem variables. However, it is uncertain whether management action prompted by a change in resilience indicators can prevent an impending regime shift. We caused a cyanobacterial bloom by gradually enriching an experimental lake while monitoring an unenriched reference lake and a continuously enriched reference lake. When resilience indicators exceeded preset boundaries, nutrient enrichment was stopped in the experimental lake. Concentrations of algal pigments, dissolved oxygen saturation, and pH rapidly declined following cessation of nutrient enrichment and became similar to the unenriched lake, whereas a large bloom occurred in the continuously enriched lake. This outcome suggests that resilience indicators may be useful in management to prevent unwanted regime shifts, at least in some situations. Nonetheless, a safer approach to ecosystem management would build and maintain the resilience of desirable ecosystem conditions, for example, by preventing excessive nutrient input to lakes and reservoirs.

Ecosystem regime shifts are abrupt changes from one dynamical state to another, such as the shift from a clear‐water state to an algal bloom state in lakes. These transitions are hard to forecast but theory suggests that early warning indicators can predict impending regime shifts that may allow for management intervention to prevent or mitigate an unwanted change. The efficacy of early warning indicators has been demonstrated in modeling and laboratory experiments, but rarely in the field, where environmental drivers are numerous and interacting. It is unclear if early warning indicators are observable or timely enough to allow for intervention under these conditions. We performed six whole‐lake experimental nutrient additions to test the utility of early warning indicators for predicting the regime shift from a clear‐water state to a cyanobacteria‐dominated state. The lakes were monitored for increases in resilience indicators including rises in standard deviation and autocorrelation of algal pigments and dissolved oxygen saturation. A statistical method, quickest detection, determined when resilience indicators in manipulated lakes deviated substantially from those in a reference ecosystem. Blooms occurred in five of the six lake‐years. Although there was substantial variability in bloom size and timing, at least one indicator foreshadowed the peak chlorophyll a concentration in all instances. Early warnings occurred 1–57 d prior to a bloom, which in some instances, may allow managers to notify the public or intervene to prevent blooms. The resilience indicators generally identified changes in resilience over time within a lake and also ranked large differences in resilience among lakes. Our findings suggest that resilience indicators can be useful for classifying ecosystems on a landscape and across time with respect to proximity to a critical threshold.