Introduction: Several studies in the past have examined factors impacting improvement in low back pain in the primary care context. However, there is limited evidence regarding prognostic factors for pain and disability scores in patients with axial low back pain entering a multidisciplinary spine program. Objective: The goal of this study was to assess which baseline demographic, disability, and pain-related characteristics may be prognostic for improvement in pain and disability scores entering a multidisciplinary spine program. Design: This was a retrospective review of patients with axial low back pain who participated in a multidisciplinary spine program. Baseline demographic, pain, and disability data were collected and compared to follow-up questionnaire data gathered at discharge. Primary outcomes included change in pain as identified by the Numeric Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) and change in disability as measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Setting: A multidisciplinary spine center at an academic institution. Results: A total of 204 subjects were included in this study. A univariate analysis showed significantly greater improvement in disability scores in the acute/subacute group compared to the chronic group (p = 0.003). Subjects with a history of mental health diagnosis experienced significantly less improvement in pain scores (p = 0.042). A multivariate regression analysis showed a chronic symptom duration and a higher initial disability score were significant predictors for higher disability scores following completion of the program (p = 0.003 and p < 0.0001, respectively). A mental health diagnosis (p = 0.008) and a higher initial pain score (p < 0.0001) were associated with less improvement in pain levels, while a higher BMI predicted lower final pain scores (p = 0.020). Conclusion: Patients with axial low back pain entering a spine treatment program with higher initial disability and pain scores, a mental health diagnosis, and chronic symptoms may demonstrate less improvement upon discharge.
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