We flew aerial line-transect surveys to estimate the range-wide population size of lesser prairiechickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in the Great Plains, United States in 2012 and 2013. We also estimated the number of lesser prairie-chicken leks, the number of mixed-species leks that contained both lesser and greater prairie-chickens (T. cupido) and the number of hybrid lesser-greater prairie-chickens where these species' ranges overlap. The study area included the 2011 estimated occupied lesser prairie-chicken range in 5 states and was divided into 4 ecoregions. We created a sampling frame over the study area, consisting of 536 15-Â 15-km grid cells. We flew 512 transects within a probabilistic sample of 256 cells totaling 7,680 km in 2012 and 566 transects within a probabilistic sample of 283 cells totaling 8,490 km in 2013. We estimated a total of 34,440 individual lesser prairie-chickens in 2012 (17,615 in 2013) and 350 hybrid lesser-greater prairie-chickens in 2012 (342 in 2013) in the study area. We estimated a total of 2,930 lesser prairie-chicken leks in 2012 (2,037 in 2013) and 453 lesser and greater prairie-chicken mixed leks in 2012 (356 in 2013) in the study area. We discuss the implications of alternative sampling designs with regard to conservation questions to be addressed. Ó 2014 The Wildlife Society.

The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is a species of conservation concern resulting from long-term declines in abundance due in part to loss and fragmentation of habitat. Habitat loss can affect landscape carrying capacity, and may exacerbate otherwise normal fluctuations in populations during periods of drought, anomalous weather, or other stochastic events. Previous work provided a unified long-term (1965-2012) assessment of lesser prairie-chicken population dynamics and projections of persistence in the Southern Great Plains. Despite the final year of data collection coinciding with a recordsetting drought, lesser prairie-chicken populations exhibited reasonable probabilities of persistence for 3 of the 4 ecoregions in which they occur. Our objective was to validate previous population forecasts with 4 years of additional data (post-drought). We assessed long-term changes in lesser prairie-chicken populations, using reconstructed population abundances from lek count and aerial survey data, and projected likely future probabilities of persistence. Based on our validations, model forecasts appear to provide a reasonable ability to project population abundance in the near term ($5 yr). Population abundances have largely edged upward since the extreme drought conditions of 2011-2012. Additionally, near-term extirpation risks have been reduced measurably for 3 of the 4 ecoregions and the range-wide population as a result of increased annual growth rates. Meta-population analysis indicated that each ecoregion had similar likelihoods of persistence as estimated independently for each single population, (i.e., without gene flow), but the longest term probability of extinction for the range-wide meta-population (i.e., with gene flow) was reduced by half as compared to the range-wide population modeled with disconnected subpopulations (i.e., ecoregions). Regardless, our results continue to support the importance of maintaining connectivity between ecoregions and core areas therein. Ó 2017 The Wildlife Society.

ABSTRACT. Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser PrairieChicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal was to explore relationships of the species occurrence with landscape characteristics and anthropogenic effects influencing its distribution through evaluation of habitat suitability associated with one particular habitat usage, lekking. Lekking has been relatively well-surveyed, though not consistently, in all jurisdictions. All five states in which Lesser Prairie-Chickens occur cooperated in development of a Maxent habitat suitability model. We created two models, one with state as a factor and one without state. When state was included it was the most important predictor, followed by percent of land cover consisting of known or suspected used vegetation classes within a 5000 m area around a lek. Without state, land cover was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for leks. Among the anthropogenic predictors, landscape condition, a measure of human impact integrated across several factors, was most important, ranking third in importance without state. These results quantify the relative suitability of the landscape within the current occupied range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. These models, combined with other landscape information, form the basis of a habitat assessment tool that can be used to guide siting of development projects and targeting of areas for conservation. Évaluation de la qualité d'habitat dans l'ensemble de l'aire du Tétras pâleRÉSUMÉ. Les baisses de population de nombreuses espèces fauniques ont été associées à la perte d'habitat consécutive aux changements d'utilisation des terres. L'incorporation de la planification de la conservation dans la planification du développement pourrait modérer ces impacts. Le Tétras pâle (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) est une espèce menacée qui fait face à la perte d'habitat naturel et à des niveaux élevés de développement énergétique dans l'ensemble de son aire multi autorités. L'objectif de notre étude était d'explorer les relations existantes entre les occurrences de l'espèce et les caractéristiques du paysage ainsi que les effets anthropiques qui influencent sa répartition, au moyen de l'évaluation de la qualité de l'habitat utilisé pour la parade (aire de lek), un habitat à usage particulier. Les aires de lek ont été relativement bien inventoriées, bien que de façon non constante, par toutes les autorités concernées. Les cinq États dans lesquels se trouve le Tétras pâle ont tous coopéré dans l'élaboration d'un modèle de qualité de l'habitat Maxent. Nous avons créé deux modèles : l'un comprenant l'État comme variable explicative et l'autre ne la comprenant pas. Lorsque l'État était inclus dans le modèle, il se révélait la variable explicati...

Habitat loss from land-use change is one of the top causes of declines in wildlife species of concern. As such, it is critical to assess and reassess habitat suitability as land cover and anthropogenic features change for both monitoring and developing current information to inform management decisions. However, there are obstacles that must be overcome to develop consistent assessments through time. A range-wide lek habitat suitability model for the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), currently under review by the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service for potential listing under the Endangered Species Act, was published in 2016. This model was based on lek data from 2002 to 2012, land cover data ranging from 2001 to 2013, and anthropogenic features from circa 2011, and has been used to help guide lesser prairie-chicken management and anthropogenic development actions. We created a second iteration model based on new lek surveys (2015 to 2019) and updated predictors (2016 land cover and cleaned/updated anthropogenic data) to evaluate changes in lek suitability and to quantify current range-wide habitat suitability. Only three of 11 predictor variables were directly comparable between the iterations, making it difficult to directly assess what predicted changes resulted from changes in model inputs versus actual landscape change. The second iteration model showed a similar positive relationship with land cover and negative relationship with anthropogenic features to the first iteration, but exhibited more variation among candidate models. Range-wide, more suitable habitat was predicted in the second iteration. The Shinnery Oak Ecoregion, however, exhibited a loss in predicted suitable habitat that could be due to predictor source changes. Iterated models such as this are important to ensure current information is being used in conservation and development decisions.