This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.

This study examines disparities in subjective well-being (SWB) among older migrants and natives across several European countries using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Our results show a significant SWB gap between migrants and non-migrants that diminishes with increasing age. While migrants from Northern and Central Europe have similar SWB levels as natives, Southern European, Eastern European, and Non-European migrants have significantly lower levels of SWB than the native population. The immigrant-native gap becomes smaller but remains significant after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and health, the financial situation, citizenship, age at migration, and length of residence. Additionally, we find that the size of the SWB gap varies largely across countries. Current family reunion policies as measured by the Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX) correlate with these country differences. The immigrant-native gap is bigger in countries with restrictive and smaller in countries with open policies.

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This study examines whether intra-European migration pays off in terms of income and subjective well-being (SWB) for migrants aged 50 + who are now growing old abroad and in what way their SWB is associated with their relative income position. Using panel data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe allows us to go beyond the classical comparison with the native reference group and draw on information about respondents who stayed in the place of origin (‘stayers’). Our findings indicate that migration does pay off in later life. Compared to similar stayers, migrants have higher income and higher SWB levels. Furthermore, we find that older migrants’ SWB is positively associated with their relative income position for those with an income above the income of both stayers in the origin and natives in the destination country.