Riverine nitrate N in the Mississippi River leads to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Several recent modeling studies estimated major N inputs and suggested source areas that could be targeted for conservation programs. We conducted a similar analysis with more recent and extensive data that demonstrates the importance of hydrology in controlling the percentage of net N inputs (NNI) exported by rivers. The average fraction of annual riverine nitrate N export/NNI ranged from 0.05 for the lower Mississippi subbasin to 0.3 for the upper Mississippi River basin and as high as 1.4 (4.2 in a wet year) for the Embarras River watershed, a mostly tile-drained basin. Intensive corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] watersheds on Mollisols had low NNI values and when combined with riverine N losses suggest a net depletion of soil organic N. We used county-level data to develop a nonlinear model ofN inputs and landscape factors that were related to winter-spring riverine nitrate yields for 153 watersheds within the basin. We found that river runoff times fertilizer N input was the major predictive term, explaining 76% of the variation in the model. Fertilizer inputs were highly correlated with fraction of land area in row crops. Tile drainage explained 17% of the spatial variation in winter-spring nitrate yield, whereas human consumption of N (i.e., sewage effluent) accounted for 7%. Net N inputs were not a good predictor of riverine nitrate N yields, nor were other N balances. We used this model to predict the expected nitrate N yield from each county in the Mississippi River basin; the greatest nitrate N yields corresponded to the highly productive, tile-drained cornbelt from southwest Minnesota across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This analysis can be used to guide decisions about where efforts to reduce nitrate N losses can be most effectively targeted to improve local water quality and reduce export to the Gulf of Mexico.

Increased delivery of biologically available nitrogen to estuaries and coastal oceans in recent decades has been linked to eutrophication and seasonal hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. We have developed a model that accounts for 95% of annual variation in delivery of nitrate to the Gulf of Mexico by the Mississippi River in 1960-98. Retrospective analysis indicates that this nitrate flux could have been reduced by 33% if the use of nitrogen-containing fertilizer in the Mississippi River basin had been cut by 12%.

Biomass crops are being promoted as environmentally favorable alternatives to fossil fuels or ethanol production from maize (Zea mays L.), particularly across the Corn Belt of the United States. However, there are few if any empirical studies on inorganic N leaching losses from perennial grasses that are harvested on an annual basis, nor has there been empirical evaluation of the hydrologic consequences of perennial cropping systems. Here we report on the results of 4 yr of field measurements of soil moisture and inorganic N leaching from a conventional maize-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] system and two unfertilized perennial grasses harvested in winter for biomass: Miscanthus x giganteus and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum cv. Cave-in-Rock). All crops were grown on fertile Mollisols in east-central Illinois. Inorganic N leaching was measured with ion exchange resin lysimeters placed 50 cm below the soil surface. Maize--soybean nitrate leaching averaged 40.4 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), whereas switchgrass and Miscanthus had values of 1.4 and 3.0 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. Soil moisture monitoring (to a depth of 90 cm) indicated that both perennial grasses dried the soil out earlier in the growing season compared with maize-soybean. Later in the growing season, soil moisture under switchgrass tended to be greater than maize-soybean or Miscanthus, whereas the soil under Miscanthus was consistently drier than under maize--soybean. Water budget calculations indicated that evapotranspiration from Miscanthus was about 104 mm yr(-1) greater than under maize-soybean, which could reduce annual drainage water flows by 32% in central Illinois. Drainage water is a primary source of surface water flows in the region, and the impact ofextensive Miscanthus production on surface water supplies and aquatic ecosystems deserves further investigation.