The Wiener-Granger causality test is used to predict future experimental results from past observations in a purely mathematical way. For instance, in many scientific papers this test has been used to study the causality relations in the case of neuronal activities. Albeit some papers reported repeatedly about problems or open questions related to the application of the Granger causality test on biological systems, these criticisms were always related to some kind of assumptions to be made before the test's application. In our paper instead we investigate the Granger method itself, making use exclusively of fundamental mathematical tools like Fourier transformation and differential calculus. We find that the ARMA method reconstructs any time series from any time series, regardless of their properties, and that the quality of the reconstruction is given by the properties of the Fourier transform. In literature several definitions of “causality” have been proposed in order to maintain the idea that the Granger test might be able to predict future events and prove causality between time series. We find instead that not even the most fundamental requirement underlying any possible definition of causality is met by the Granger causality test. No matter of the details, any definition of causality should refer to the prediction of the future from the past; instead by inverting the time series we find that Granger also allows one to “predict” the past from the future.

Most proteins perform their biological function by interacting with one or more molecular partners. In this respect, characterizing local features of the molecular surface, that can potentially be involved in the interaction with other molecules, represents a step forward in the investigation of the mechanisms of recognition and binding between molecules. Predictive methods often rely on extensive samplings of molecular patches with the aim to identify hot spots on the surface. In this framework, analysis of large proteins and/or many molecular dynamics frames is often unfeasible due to the high computational cost. Thus, finding optimal ways to reduce the number of points to be sampled maintaining the biological information (including the surface shape) carried by the molecular surface is pivotal. In this perspective, we here present a new theoretical and computational algorithm with the aim of defining a set of molecular surfaces composed of points not uniformly distributed in space, in such a way as to maximize the information of the overall shape of the molecule by minimizing the number of total points. We test our procedure’s ability in recognizing hot-spots by describing the local shape properties of portions of molecular surfaces through a recently developed method based on the formalism of 2D Zernike polynomials. The results of this work show the ability of the proposed algorithm to preserve the key information of the molecular surface using a reduced number of points compared to the complete surface, where all points of the surface are used for the description. In fact, the methodology shows a significant gain of the information stored in the sampling procedure compared to uniform random sampling.

Understanding the mechanisms driving bio-molecules binding and determining the resulting complexes’ stability is fundamental for the prediction of binding regions, which is the starting point for drug-ability and design. Characteristics like the preferentially hydrophobic composition of the binding interfaces, the role of van der Waals interactions, and the consequent shape complementarity between the interacting molecular surfaces are well established. However, no consensus has yet been reached on the role of electrostatic. Here, we perform extensive analyses on a large dataset of protein complexes for which both experimental binding affinity and pH data were available. Probing the amino acid composition, the disposition of the charges, and the electrostatic potential they generated on the protein molecular surfaces, we found that (i) although different classes of dimers do not present marked differences in the amino acid composition and charges disposition in the binding region, (ii) homodimers with identical binding region show higher electrostatic compatibility with respect to both homodimers with non-identical binding region and heterodimers. Interestingly, (iii) shape and electrostatic complementarity, for patches defined on short-range interactions, behave oppositely when one stratifies the complexes by their binding affinity: complexes with higher binding affinity present high values of shape complementarity (the role of the Lennard-Jones potential predominates) while electrostatic tends to be randomly distributed. Conversely, complexes with low values of binding affinity exploit Coulombic complementarity to acquire specificity, suggesting that electrostatic complementarity may play a greater role in transient (or less stable) complexes. In light of these results, (iv) we provide a novel, fast, and efficient method, based on the 2D Zernike polynomial formalism, to measure electrostatic complementarity without the need of knowing the complex structure. Expanding the electrostatic potential on a basis of 2D orthogonal polynomials, we can discriminate between transient and permanent protein complexes with an AUC of the ROC of $$\sim$$ ∼ 0.8. Ultimately, our work helps shedding light on the non-trivial relationship between the hydrophobic and electrostatic contributions in the binding interfaces, thus favoring the development of new predictive methods for binding affinity characterization.

The continuous emergence of novel variants represents one of the major problems in dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Indeed, also due to its prolonged circulation, more than ten variants of concern emerged, each time rapidly overgrowing the current viral version due to improved spreading features. As, up to now, all variants carry at least one mutation on the spike Receptor Binding Domain, the stability of the binding between the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the human ACE2 receptor seems one of the molecular determinants behind the viral spreading potential. In this framework, a better understanding of the interplay between spike mutations and complex stability can help to assess the impact of novel variants. Here, we characterize the peculiarities of the most representative variants of concern in terms of the molecular interactions taking place between the residues of the spike RBD and those of the ACE2 receptor. To do so, we performed molecular dynamics simulations of the RBD-ACE2 complexes of the seven variants of concern in comparison with a large set of complexes with different single mutations taking place on the RBD solvent-exposed residues and for which the experimental binding affinity was available. Analyzing the strength and spatial organization of the intermolecular interactions of the binding region residues, we found that (i) mutations producing an increase of the complex stability mainly rely on instaurating more favorable van der Waals optimization at the cost of Coulombic ones. In particular, (ii) an anti-correlation is observed between the shape and electrostatic complementarities of the binding regions. Finally, (iii) we showed that combining a set of dynamical descriptors is possible to estimate the outcome of point mutations on the complex binding region with a performance of 0.7. Overall, our results introduce a set of dynamical observables that can be rapidly evaluated to probe the effects of novel isolated variants or different molecular systems.