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Abstract:The PARSIFAL (Probabilistic Approach to pRovide Scenarios of earthquake-Induced slope FAiLures) approach was applied in the basin of Alcoy (Alicante, South Spain), to provide a comprehensive scenario of earthquake-induced landslides. The basin of Alcoy is well known for several historical landslides, mainly represented by earth-slides, that involve urban settlement as well as infrastructures (i.e., roads, bridges). The PARSIFAL overcomes several limits existing in other approaches, allowing the concomitant analyses of: (i) first-time landslides (due to both rock-slope failures and shallow earth-slides) and reactivations of existing landslides; (ii) slope stability analyses of different failure mechanisms; (iii) comprehensive mapping of earthquake-induced landslide scenarios in terms of exceedance probability of critical threshold values of co-seismic displacements. Geotechnical data were used to constrain the slope stability analysis, while specific field surveys were carried out to measure jointing and strength conditions of rock masses and to inventory already existing landslides. GIS-based susceptibility analyses were performed to assess the proneness to shallow earth-slides as well as to verify kinematic compatibility to planar or wedge rock-slides and to topples. The experienced application of PARSIFAL to the Alcoy basin: (i) confirms the suitability of the approach at a municipality scale, (ii) outputs the main role of saturation in conditioning slope instabilities in this case study, (iii) demonstrates the reliability of the obtained results respect to the historical data.

Scenarios of earthquake-induced landslides are necessary for seismic microzonation (SM) studies since they must be integrated with the mapping of instability areas. The PARSI-FAL (Probabilistic Approach to pRovide Scenarios of earthquake-Induced slope FAiLures) approach provides extensive analyses, over tens to thousands of square kilometers, and is designed as a fully comprehensive methodology to output expected scenarios which depend on seismic input and saturation conditions. This allows to attribute a rating, in terms of severity level, to the landslide-prone slope areas in view of future engineering studies and designs. PARSIFAL takes into account first-time rock-and earth-slides as well as re-activations of existing landslides performing slope stability analyses of different failure mechanisms. The results consist of mapping earthquake-induced landslide scenarios in terms of exceedance probability of critical threshold values of co-seismic displacements (P[D ≥ Dc|a(t),a y ]). PARSIFAL was applied in the framework of level 3 SM studies over the municipality area of Accumoli (Rieti, Italy), strongly struck by the 2016 seismic sequence of Central Apennines. The use of the PARSIFAL was tested for the first time to screen the Susceptibility Zones (ZS FR) from the Attention Zones (ZA FR) in the category of the unstable areas, according to the guidelines by Italian Civil Protection. The results obtained were in a GIS-based mapping representing the possibility for a landslide to be induced by an earthquake (with a return period of 475 years) in three different saturation scenarios (i.e. dry, average, full). Only 41% of the landslide-prone areas in the Municipality of Accumoli are existing events, while the remaining 59% is characterized by first-time earth-or rock-slides. In dry conditions, unstable conditions or P[D ≥ Dc|a(t),a y ] > 0 were for 54% of existing landslides, 17% of first-time rock-slides and 1% of first-time earthslides. In full saturation conditions, the findings are much more severe since unstable conditions or P[D ≥ Dc|a(t),a y ] > 0 were found for 58% of the existing landslides and for more than 80% of first-time rock-and earth-slides. Moreover, comparison of the total area of the ZA FR versus ZS FR , resulted in PARSIFAL screening reducing of 22% of the mapped ZA FR .

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In August 2016, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck Central Italy, starting a devastating seismic sequence, aggravated by other two events of magnitude 5.9 and 6.5, respectively. After the first mainshock, four Italian institutions installed a dense temporary network of 50 seismic stations in an area of 260 km2. The network was registered in the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks with the code 3A and quoted with a Digital Object Identifier (10.13127/SD/ku7Xm12Yy9). Raw data were converted into the standard binary miniSEED format, and organized in a structured archive. Then, data quality and completeness were checked, and all the relevant information was used for creating the metadata volumes. Finally, the 99 Gb of continuous seismic data and metadata were uploaded into the INGV node of the European Integrated Data Archive repository. Their use was regulated by a Memorandum of Understanding between the institutions. After an embargo period, the data are now available for many different seismological studies.