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PurposeTo define the minimal detectable change (MDC) for the international knee documentation committee (IKDC) and Kujala scores one and two years after patellofemoral joint arthroplasty (PFA). MethodsA distribution‐based method (one‐half the standard deviation of the mean difference between postoperative and preoperative outcome scores) was applied to establish MDC thresholds among 225 patients undergoing primary PFA at a single high‐volume musculoskeletal‐care center. Stability of change in MDC achievement was explored by quantifying the proportion of achievement at one‐ and two‐year postoperative timepoints. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the association between sociodemographic and operative features on MDC achievement. ResultsMDC thresholds for the Kujala score were 10.3 (71.1% achievement) and 10.6 (70.4% achievement) at one‐ and two years, respectively. The MDC thresholds for the IKDC score were 11.2 (78.1% achievement) and 12.3 (69.0% achievement) at one‐ and two years, respectively. Predictors of achieving the MDC for the Kujala and IKDC scores at both time points were lower preoperative Kujala and IKDC scores, respectively. Preoperative thresholds of ≤ 24.1 and 7.6 for the Kujala and IKDC scores, respectively, were associated with a 90% MDC achievement probability. When preoperative thresholds approached 64.3 and 48.3 for the Kujala and IKDC, respectively, MDC achievement probability reduced to 50%. ConclusionThe MDC thresholds for the Kujala and IKDC scores two years after PFA were 10.6 and 12.3, respectively. Clinically significant health status changes were maintained overall, with a slight decrease in achievement rates between one and two years. MDC achievement was associated with disability at presentation, and several probability‐based preoperative thresholds were defined. These findings may assist knee surgeons with patient selection and the decision to proceed with PFA by better understanding the patient‐specific propensity for MDC achievement. Level of evidenceIV, retrospective case series.