Background The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is one of  the greatest  global medical and social challenges that have emerged in recent history. Human coronavirus strains discovered during previous SARS outbreaks have been hypothesized to pass from bats to humans using intermediate hosts, e.g. civets for SARS-CoV and camels for MERS-CoV. The discovery of an intermediate host of SARS-CoV-2 and the identification of specific mechanism of its emergence in humans are topics of primary evolutionary importance. In this study we investigate the evolutionary patterns of 11 main genes of SARS-CoV-2. Previous studies suggested that the genome of SARS-CoV-2 is highly similar to the horseshoe bat coronavirus RaTG13 for most of the genes and to some Malayan pangolin coronavirus (CoV) strains for the receptor binding (RB) domain of the spike protein. Results We provide a detailed list of statistically significant horizontal gene transfer and recombination events (both intergenic and intragenic) inferred for each of 11 main genes of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Our analysis reveals that two continuous regions of genes S and N of SARS-CoV-2 may result from intragenic recombination between RaTG13 and Guangdong (GD) Pangolin CoVs. Statistically significant gene transfer-recombination events between RaTG13 and GD Pangolin CoV have been identified in region [1215–1425] of gene S and region [534–727] of gene N. Moreover, some statistically significant recombination events between the ancestors of SARS-CoV-2, RaTG13, GD Pangolin CoV and bat CoV ZC45-ZXC21 coronaviruses have been identified in genes ORF1ab, S, ORF3a, ORF7a, ORF8 and N. Furthermore, topology-based clustering of gene trees inferred for 25 CoV organisms revealed a three-way evolution of coronavirus genes, with gene phylogenies of ORF1ab, S and N forming the first cluster, gene phylogenies of ORF3a, E, M, ORF6, ORF7a, ORF7b and ORF8 forming the second cluster, and phylogeny of gene ORF10 forming the third cluster. Conclusions The results of our horizontal gene transfer and recombination analysis suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could not only be a chimera virus resulting from recombination of the bat RaTG13 and Guangdong pangolin coronaviruses but also a close relative of the bat CoV ZC45 and ZXC21 strains. They also indicate that a GD pangolin may be an intermediate host of this dangerous virus.

This paper provides an analysis of the tradeoff between asymptotic bias (suboptimality with unlimited data) and overfitting (additional suboptimality due to limited data) in the context of reinforcement learning with partial observability. Our theoretical analysis formally characterizes that while potentially increasing the asymptotic bias, a smaller state representation decreases the risk of overfitting. This analysis relies on expressing the quality of a state representation by bounding L 1 error terms of the associated belief states. Theoretical results are empirically illustrated when the state representation is a truncated history of observations, both on synthetic POMDPs and on a large-scale POMDP in the context of smartgrids, with real-world data. Finally, similarly to known results in the fully observable setting, we also briefly discuss and empirically illustrate how using function approximators and adapting the discount factor may enhance the tradeoff between asymptotic bias and overfitting in the partially observable context. 1 arXiv:1709.07796v2 [stat.ML]

Dynamic and temporal graphs are rich data structures that are used to model complex relationships between entities over time. In particular, anomaly detection in temporal graphs is crucial for many real world applications such as intrusion identification in network systems, detection of ecosystem disturbances and detection of epidemic outbreaks. In this paper, we focus on change point detection in dynamic graphs and address two main challenges associated with this problem: I) how to compare graph snapshots across time, II) how to capture temporal dependencies. To solve the above challenges, we propose Laplacian Anomaly Detection (LAD) which uses the spectrum of the Laplacian matrix of the graph structure at each snapshot to obtain low dimensional embeddings. LAD explicitly models short term and long term dependencies by applying two sliding windows. In synthetic experiments, LAD outperforms the state-of-the-art method. We also evaluate our method on three real dynamic networks: UCI message network, US senate co-sponsorship network and Canadian bill voting network. In all three datasets, we demonstrate that our method can more effectively identify anomalous time points according to significant real world events. CCS CONCEPTS • Computing methodologies → Anomaly detection; Temporal reasoning; Spectral methods; • Mathematics of computing → Spectra of graphs; • Theory of computation → Dynamic graph algorithms.