The reliability used in the pavement design is assigned according to recommendations of design guides or according to the designer's criteria; that is to say, there is no rational tool for their estimation. In addition, the chosen value is deterministic and does not consider the random nature of the process or the actual conditions of load, climate, material behavior and impact of the construction process that affect the performance of the structure when it is in service. This research proposes to link the design method and calibrated deterioration models to local conditions that consider the actual behavior of the materials, the variability of the construction process, the actual load stresses and the weather, when in operation. For this, a Monte Carlo simulation model is developed, using field data and statistical concepts that allow defining the variables of the model as random variables. Subsequently, with the variables found and using the reliability theory and the serviceability model, the design method and the models of deterioration are evaluated through a supply and demand analysis to obtain the reliability value that reduces the uncertainty of the performance of the structure when operating.Key words: Reliability, pavement design, deterioration models, serviceability, pavement design life, pavement service life. ResumenLa confiabilidad usada en el diseño de un pavimento se asigna según recomendaciones de guías de diseño o de acuerdo al criterio del diseñador, es decir no existe una herramienta racional para su estimación. Además, el valor elegido es determinista y no considera la naturaleza aleatoria del proceso ni las condiciones reales de carga, clima, comportamiento de materiales e impacto del proceso constructivo que afectan el desempeño de la estructura cuando se encuentra en servicio Esta investigación propone enlazar el método de diseño y los modelos de deterioro calibrados a condiciones locales que consideran el comportamiento real de los materiales, la variabilidad del proceso constructivo, las solicitaciones reales de carga y clima cuando se encuentran en operación. Para ello se desarrolla un modelo de simulación del tipo Monte Carlo, usando datos de campo y conceptos estadísticos que permiten definir las variables del modelo como variables aleatorias. Posteriormente, con las variables encontradas y utilizando la teoría de confiabilidad y el modelo de serviciabilidad, se evalúa el método de diseño y los modelos de deterioro a través de un análisis de oferta y demanda para obtener el valor de confiabilidad que reduce la incertidumbre del desempeño de la estructura cuando se encuentra en operación Palabras clave: Confiabilidad, diseño de pavimentos, modelos de deterioro, serviciabilidad, vida de diseño, vida de servicio.

Durability of an asphalt mixture is directly related to the optimum asphalt binder content, which guarantees coverage of the aggregate particles and suitable volumetric properties to ensure a good performance in service, producing an asphalt mixture that is less susceptible to aging and moisture damage. Previous research has shown that the polygon-of-voids tool, or polyvoids, is an analytical technique to determine the optimum asphalt binder content of asphalt mixtures with virgin aggregates based on the specification limits of voids, allowing a saving in time and material. However, current trends to develop new asphalt mixtures which incorporate reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) have created additional challenges given the nature of the design of a mixture containing aggregates with residual asphalt that make the property measurement of the bulk specific gravity of the RAP aggregate difficult. This paper aims to demonstrate the application of the polygon-of-voids tool for the design of recycled hot-mix asphalt. The results show that the method of substitution, where the value of the actual specific gravity of the RAP aggregate is assumed as the bulk specific gravity of the RAP aggregate , gives the optimum asphalt contents closest to those determined by the traditional Marshall method for the design of asphalt mixtures.