An external shock caused by an extraordinary and unpredictable effect, a “black swan” like COVID-19, is analyzed. It implies a shift of endowment in financial markets, and its effects on economic inequality, financial deepening and total economic income. Theoretical models are proposed, where the public sector seeks alternatives to a lockdown, allowing self-regulation of the economy, taxing capital or seeking joint policies with other states. In the first model, the economy is self-regulating with the help of the financial sector. Nonetheless, inequality is generated and in other models, the public sector tries to intervene. First, the public sector minimizes inequality by taxing capital, allowing a redistribution of wealth and income, with a tax rate that depends only on the differential impacts of the black swan on the different markets. Finally, a coordination of policies between the different countries affected is proposed to prevent black swans and other negative externalities. This is feasible depending on the tax rate, household benefits and administration costs

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Background. Varicella, a contagious and infectious disease that is usually benign in children, may become complicated among adults and vulnerable children and may even be life-threatening. There are effective vaccines. A retrospective study was conducted about costs and resulting hospitalizations related to this disease in the population of Aragón in the 2004-2014 period. Costs were compared to the expenses that would have been incurred if those people had received the vaccine and also to the expenses of vaccinating the 1-year-old population over the entire period. A cost-benefit analysis was done to assess the economic impact of varicella vaccination. Method. Data for the 11-year period were provided by the Autonomous Community of Aragón (Spain) and included annual varicella incidence, hospital discharges of varicella cases, costs of primary health care visits and hospitalizations for each year, costs of each workday as per the minimum annual salary and of drugs used). Capitalized costs were estimated and compared to capitalized expenses of vaccination, and a sensitivity analysis was performed. Results. A benefit-cost ratio of 1.6 was obtained considering that all children who had varicella had been vaccinated and had received a booster dose. A benefit-cost ratio of 1.24 was obtained considering that the vaccine had been administered to every 1-year-old individual at a price of EUR 28.59 per vaccine. Over the 11-year period, 53% of hospitalizations corresponded to children younger than 5 years old. Conclusions. Public campaigns for the immunization of children younger than 4 years old with 2 doses lead to cost savings and are cost-effective because the vaccine price results in a benefit-cost ratio greater than 1. A major reduction is expected in the number of hospitalizations among children aged 3-4 years.

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