We study the problem of stabilizing a switched linear system with disturbance using sampled and quantized measurements of its state. The switching is assumed to be slow in the sense of combined dwell-time and average dwelltime, while the active mode is unknown except at sampling times. Each mode of the switched linear system is assumed to be stabilizable, and the magnitude of the disturbance is constrained by a known bound. A communication and control strategy is designed to guarantee bounded-input-bounded-state (BIBS) stability of the switched linear system and an exponential convergence rate with respect to the initial state, providing the data rate satisfies certain lower bounds. Such lower bounds are established by expanding the over-approximation bounds of reachable sets over sampling intervals derived in a previous paper to accommodate effects of the disturbance.
We address the prediction of the number of new cases and deaths for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) over a future horizon from historical data (forecasting). We use a model-based approach based on a stochastic Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) model with time-varying parameters, which capture the evolution of the disease dynamics in response to changes in social behavior, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and testing rates. We show that, in the presence of asymptomatic cases, such model includes internal parameters and states that cannot be uniquely identified solely on the basis of measurements of new cases and deaths, but this does not preclude the construction of reliable forecasts for future values of these measurements. Such forecasts and associated confidence intervals can be computed using an iterative algorithm based on nonlinear optimization solvers, without the need for Monte Carlo sampling. Our results have been validated on an extensive COVID-19 dataset covering the period from March through December 2020 on 144 regions around the globe.
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