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Tidd, A. N., Hutton, T., Kell, L. T., and Padda, G. 2011. Exit and entry of fishing vessels: an evaluation of factors affecting investment decisions in the North Sea English beam trawl fleet. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 961–971. A profitable fishery attracts additional effort (vessels enter), eventually leading to overcapacity and less profit. Similarly, fishing vessels exit depending on their economic viability (or reduced expectations of future benefits) or encouraged by schemes such as decommissioning grants and/or when there is consolidation of fishing effort within a tradable rights-based quota system (e.g. individual transferable quotas). The strategic decision-making behaviour of fishers in entering or exiting the English North Sea beam trawl fishery is analysed using a discrete choice model by integrating data on vessel characteristics with available cost data, decommissioning grant information, and other factors that potentially influence anticipated benefits or future risks. It is then possible to predict whether operators choose to enter, stay, exit, or decommission. Important factors affecting investment include vessel age and size, future revenues, operating costs (e.g. fuel), stock status of the main target species, and the impact of management measures (e.g. total allowable catches) and total fleet size (a proxy for congestion). Based on the results, the predicted marginal effects of each factor are presented and the impact of each is discussed in the context of policies developed to align fleet capacity with fishing opportunities.

Dankel, D. J., Aps, R., Padda, G., Röckmann, C., van der Sluijs, J. P., Wilson, D. C., and Degnbol, P. 2012. Advice under uncertainty in the marine system. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 3–7. There is some uncertainty in the fisheries science–policy interface. Although progress has been made towards more transparency and participation in fisheries science in ICES Areas, routine use of state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative tools to address uncertainty systematically is still lacking. Fisheries science that gives advice to policy-making is plagued by uncertainties; the stakes of the policies are high and value-laden and need therefore to be treated as an example of “post-normal science” (PNS). To achieve robust governance, understanding of the characteristics and implications of the scientific uncertainties for management strategies need to come to the centre of the table. This can be achieved using state-of-the-art tools such as pedigree matrices and uncertainty matrices, as developed by PNS scholars and used in similar science–policy arenas on other complex issues. An explicit extension of the peer community within maritime systems will be required to put these new tools in place. These new competences become even more important as many countries within the ICES Area are now embarking on new policies.

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