Lumbar vertebral body (VB) fractures are increasingly common in an ageing population that is at greater risk of osteoporosis and metastasis. This review aims to identify different models, as alternatives to bone mineral density (BMD), which may be applied in order to predict VB failure load and fracture risk. The most representative models are those that take account of normal spinal kinetics and assess the contribution of the cortical shell to vertebral strength. Overall, predictive models for VB fracture risk should encompass a range of important parameters including BMD, geometric measures and patient-specific factors. As interventions like vertebroplasty increase in popularity for VB fracture treatment and prevention, such models are likely to play a significant role in the clinical decision-making process. More biomechanical research is required, however, to reduce the risks of post-operative adjacent VB fractures. Core tip: Lumbar vertebral body (VB) fractures are increasingly common in an ageing population that is at greater risk of osteoporosis and metastasis. This review aims to identify different models, as alternatives to bone mineral density (BMD), which may be applied in order to predict VB failure load and fracture risk. The most representative models are those that take account of normal spinal kinetics and assess the contribution of the cortical shell to vertebral strength. Overall, predictive models for VB fracture risk should encompass a range of important parameters including BMD, geometric measures and patient-specific factors.Sisodia GB. Methods of predicting vertebral body fractures of the lumbar spine. World J Orthop 2013; 4(4): 241-247 Available from: