ObjectiveTo systematically review and critically appraise prognostic models for falls in community-dwelling older adults.Eligibility criteriaProspective cohort studies with any follow-up period. Studies had to develop or validate multifactorial prognostic models for falls in community-dwelling older adults (60+ years). Models had to be applicable for screening in a general population setting.Information sourceMEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, PsycINFO and Web of Science for studies published in English, Danish, Norwegian or Swedish until January 2020. Sources also included trial registries, clinical guidelines, reference lists of included papers, along with contacting clinical experts to locate published studies.Data extraction and risk of biasTwo authors performed all review stages independently. Data extraction followed the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies checklist. Risk of bias assessments on participants, predictors, outcomes and analysis methods followed Prediction study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool.ResultsAfter screening 11 789 studies, 30 were eligible for inclusion (n=86 369 participants). Median age of participants ranged from 67.5 to 83.0 years. Falls incidences varied from 5.9% to 59%. Included studies reported 69 developed and three validated prediction models. Most frequent falls predictors were prior falls, age, sex, measures of gait, balance and strength, along with vision and disability. The area under the curve was available for 40 (55.6%) models, ranging from 0.49 to 0.87. Validated models’ The area under the curve ranged from 0.62 to 0.69. All models had a high risk of bias, mostly due to limitations in statistical methods, outcome assessments and restrictive eligibility criteria.ConclusionsAn abundance of prognostic models on falls risk have been developed, but with a wide range in discriminatory performance. All models exhibited a high risk of bias rendering them unreliable for prediction in clinical practice. Future prognostic prediction models should comply with recent recommendations such as Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019124021.

Background Falls are the leading cause of fatal and non-fatal injuries in older adults, and attention to falls prevention is imperative. Prognostic models identifying high-risk individuals could guide fall-preventive interventions in the rapidly growing older population. We aimed to develop a prognostic prediction model on falls rate in community-dwelling older adults. Methods Design: prospective cohort study with 12 months follow-up and participants recruited from June 14, 2018, to July 18, 2019. Setting: general population. Subjects: community-dwelling older adults aged 75+ years, without dementia or acute illness, and able to stand unsupported for one minute. Outcome: fall rate for 12 months. Statistical methods: candidate predictors were physical and cognitive tests along with self-report questionnaires. We developed a Poisson model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization, leave-one-out cross-validation, and bootstrap resampling with 1000 iterations. Results Sample size at study start and end was 241 and 198 (82%), respectively. The number of fallers was 87 (36%), and the fall rate was 0.94 falls per person-year. Predictors included in the final model were educational level, dizziness, alcohol consumption, prior falls, self-perceived falls risk, disability, and depressive symptoms. Mean absolute error (95% CI) was 0.88 falls (0.71–1.16). Conclusion We developed a falls prediction model for community-dwelling older adults in a general population setting. The model was developed by selecting predictors from among physical and cognitive tests along with self-report questionnaires. The final model included only the questionnaire-based predictors, and its predictions had an average imprecision of less than one fall, thereby making it appropriate for clinical practice. Future external validation is needed. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03608709).

Objective A transient rise in the occurrence of hyperthyroidism ensued the introduction of iodine fortification (IF) of salt in Denmark. Older adults are at risk of complications to hyperthyroidism that could prove fatal to vulnerable individuals. We evaluated the association between thyroid function and mortality in older adults before and after nationwide implementation of IF. Design Retrospective cohort study. Patients All 68‐year‐olds from the general population in the city of Randers were invited to participate in a clinical study in 1988 and followed until death, emigration or end of study (31 December 2017) using Danish registries. Measurements Baseline measures comprised of a questionnaire, physical examination and blood and urine samples. Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox regression were used to determine the association between thyroid function and death before and after IF. Time‐stratification of results before and after IF was employed due to violation of proportional hazards assumptions in Cox regression. Results Median urinary iodine concentration was 42 µg/L at baseline consistent with moderate iodine deficiency. Hyperthyroidism (thyrotropin < 0.4 mIU/L) occurred in 37 (9.1%) participants. Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed an increase in mortality among participants with hyperthyroidism after IF. There was no significant association between hyperthyroidism and mortality before IF compared to euthyroid participants, but after IF hyperthyroid subjects had an increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.44–3.44). Conclusions IF was associated with raised mortality among older adults with a history of hyperthyroidism and moderate iodine deficiency. Our results highlight the need for cautious iodine supplementation and for monitoring of IF.