Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

In 2010, the international community, under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed on 20 biodiversity-related "Aichi Targets" to be achieved within a decade. We provide a comprehensive mid-term assessment of progress toward these global targets using 55 indicator data sets. We projected indicator trends to 2020 using an adaptive statistical framework that incorporated the specific properties of individual time series. On current trajectories, results suggest that despite accelerating policy and management responses to the biodiversity crisis, the impacts of these efforts are unlikely to be reflected in improved trends in the state of biodiversity by 2020. We highlight areas of societal endeavor requiring additional efforts to achieve the Aichi Targets, and provide a baseline against which to assess future progress.

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Seed aid is increasingly applied as an emergency response throughout Africa. This article describes its rise, its goals and the seed security principles which should shape it. Drawing on evidence of the effects of disaster, the article reviews the appropriateness of current seed aid responses and suggests ways to link the type of seed security problem with the type of response employed. Direct seed distribution, the dominant form, seems suited for a subset of conditions when farmers procure seed through formal channels and when seed is not sufficiently available in an area. Seed vouchers and fairs may be more widely applicable as this approach strengthens channels that farmers normally use (both formal and informal) and addresses the more common problem of farmers' lack of access to seed. Key for improving seed aid is a better understanding of how local seed markets function, as these provide a core of seed security in normal and stress periods.