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Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) has a significant effect on climate change. The ability to quantify agricultural GHG and implement practices to mitigate its emissions is of great significance. Optimal GHG mitigation practices in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China, have not been well documented. In this study, historical (2000–2014) and projected (2015–2049) methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from paddy‐upland crop rotations were simulated at a county scale using the denitrification–decomposition model. The results demonstrated (1) historical mean emissions of CH4, N2O, and global warming potential (GWP) were 158.6 kg‐C ha−1 year−1, 0.75 kg‐N ha−1 year−1, and 22.15 Tg CO2‐eq year−1 in the study area (1 Tg = 1012 g); (2) CH4 emission rates significantly increased, while there was no significant change in N2O under projected RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, and RCP8.5 induced 10% more CH4 than RCP4.5; (3) marginal flooding coupled with reduced‐tillage practice was the optimal strategy to mitigate GHG emissions due to its lowest GWP. This study would provide insight into the agricultural GHG emissions, as well as the impact on climate change. Also, a theoretical basis for policymaking would be provided by this study. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This paper utilizes high-resolution ERA5 hourly data from 1980 to 2020 and long-term normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series obtained from remote sensing and applies trend analysis, correlation analysis, lag analysis, and other methods to study the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme rainfall at daily and hourly scales in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The paper explores the NDVI’s variability and its relationship with extreme hourly precipitation and analyzes the main factors affecting it. The study made the following observations: (1) The extreme daily precipitation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain shows a decreasing trend, with a 13.6 mm/yr reduction rate. In contrast, the proportion of extreme rainfall to total precipitation generally exceeds 20%, and the intensity of extreme rain has gradually increased. The spatial distribution pattern of extreme rainfall follows the distribution pattern of China’s rain belts, with the terrain being an important influencing factor. The high-incidence areas for extreme rainfall are the Huaihe River region and the Shandong Peninsula. (2) The observed significant increase in hourly extreme precipitation events in the Shandong and Henan provinces of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain has led to an increased risk of flooding, while the corresponding events in the northwest region of the Plain have exhibited a gradual weakening trend over time. (3) The extreme hourly precipitation in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain shows a frequent and scattered pattern, with decreasing intensity over time. Extreme precipitation mainly occurs in the first half of the night, especially between 19:00 and 21:00, with extreme hourly rainfall intensity fluctuating between 0.2 and 0.25 and the proportion of rainfall to total precipitation reaching as high as 10%. The spatial distribution of extreme hourly rainstorms during the peak period (19:00–21:00) exhibits a high rainfall volume, intensity, and frequency pattern in the eastern region, while the western part exhibits low rainfall volume, intensity, and frequency. (4) The incidence of extremely heavy rainfall in an hour has exhibited a more significant increase compared to extreme daily events in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, primarily in the form of backward-type precipitation. Hourly extreme precipitation events in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain are affected by terrain and land use/cover change (LUCC), with the micro-topography of hilly areas leading to a concentrated distribution of precipitation and LUCC suppressing extreme precipitation events in arid climates. (5) At the ten-day scale, the spatial distribution of the NDVI shows a gradually increasing trend from northwest to southeast, with the highest NDVI value reaching up to 0.6 in the southern part of the study area. For extreme hourly precipitation, there is no significant change observed at the multi-year ten-day scale; while the NDVI in the northern and central parts of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain shows a significant decreasing trend, in contrast, it presents a significant increasing trend in the southern region. (6) Finally, the correlation between NDVI at the ten-day scale and extreme hourly precipitation exhibits a decreasing pattern from north to south, with a correlation coefficient decreasing from 0.48 to 0.08. The lagged correlation analysis of extreme hourly rainfall and NDVI for one, two, and three ten-day periods shows that the lagged effect of extreme hourly precipitation on NDVI is negligible. Analyzing the correlation between extreme hourly rainfall and NDVI for different months, the impact of extreme hourly precipitation on NDVI is predominantly negative, except for June, which shows a positive correlation (0.35), passing the significance test. This study offers a scientific foundation for enhancing disaster warning accuracy and timeliness and strengthening the research on disaster reduction techniques.