Rationale: Interstitial lung disease (ILD) represents a major challenge in systemic sclerosis (SSc), but there are no precise, population-based data on its overall impact, limiting opportunities for screening and management strategies. Objectives: Evaluate impact of ILD in a unique, nationwide, population-based SSc cohort. Methods: ILD was assessed prospectively in the Norwegian SSc (Nor-SSc) cohort, including all 815 patients with SSc resident in the country from 2000 to 2012. Lung high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scans were available for fibrosis quantification at baseline (n = 650, 80%) and follow-up. Pulmonary function tests were assessed at baseline (n = 703, 86%) and follow-up. Vital status and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated at study end (2018) in the 630 incident Nor-SSc cases and 15 individually matched control subjects. Cumulative survival rates were computed. Measurements and Main Results: At baseline, 50% of the subjects with SSc (n = 324) had ILD by HRCT and 46% displayed pulmonary function declines consistent with ILD progression. Mortality correlated with extent of lung fibrosis as SMR increased from 2.2 with no fibrosis to 8.0 with greater than 25% fibrosis. SMR was inversely related to baseline FVC% and increased at all FVC levels below 100%. In patients with normal-range baseline FVC (80-100%), the 5and 10-year survival rates correlated with presence or absence of lung fibrosis, being 83% and 80%, respectively, with no fibrosis and 69% and 56%, respectively, with lung fibrosis (P = 0.03). Conclusions: The mere presence of ILD at baseline appears to affect outcome in SSc, suggesting that all patients with SSc should undergo a baseline pulmonary function test and lung HRCT screening to diagnose ILD early and tailor further management.

Objective. Interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) runs a highly variable course, and prediction tools are highly desired. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic and prognostic performance of 4 candidate serum biomarkers for SSc-associated ILD.Methods. Serum samples from a combined cohort of SSc patients (from Paris, France and Oslo, Norway; n = 427) were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for concentrations of lung epithelial-derived surfactant protein D (SP-D), Krebs von den Lungen 6 glycoprotein (KL-6), CCL18, and OX40 ligand (OX40L). Lung fibrosis was measured by high-resolution computed tomography and pulmonary function tests. Associations of these candidate biomarkers with baseline disease involvement and prediction of disease progression over time (mean ± SD follow-up 3.2 ± 4.4 years) were investigated.Results. In SSc patients at baseline, serum levels of KL-6 correlated with the forced vital capacity (FVC) (r = −0.317, P < 0.001), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (r = −0.335, P < 0.001), and extent of lung fibrosis (r = 0.551, P < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, serum levels of KL-6 and SP-D, but not CCL18 and OX40L, were associated with lung fibrosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.41, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.43-4.07 [P = 0.001] and OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.81-5.48 [P < 0.001], respectively). In SSc patients with ILD at baseline, longitudinal, multivariate analyses showed that CCL18 serum levels were an independent predictor of a >10% decrease in the FVC (hazard ratio [HR] 2.90, 95% CI 1.25-6.73; P = 0.014) and de novo development of extensive disease (HR 3.71, 95% CI 1.02-13.52; P = 0.048). Matrix-based logistic regression models for the diagnosis and prognosis of SSc-associated ILD were constructed, and these models discriminated 3 groups of risk (mild, moderate, or high) for the diagnosis or worsening of lung fibrosis according to the serum levels of SP-D (for diagnosis) and serum levels of CCL18 (for progression of disease).Conclusion. These results show that SP-D is a relevant diagnostic biomarker for SSc-associated ILD, whereas KL-6 could be used to assess the severity of lung fibrosis. CCL18 appears to be a potential predictive marker for progression of ILD in SSc.

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