The concept of adaptive licensing (AL) has met with considerable interest. Yet some remain skeptical about its feasibility. Others argue that the focus and name of AL should be broadened. Against this background of ongoing debate, we examine the environmental changes that will likely make adaptive pathways the preferred approach in the future. The key drivers include: growing patient demand for timely access to promising therapies, emerging science leading to fragmentation of treatment populations, rising payer influence on product accessibility, and pressure on pharma/investors to ensure sustainability of drug development. We also discuss a number of environmental changes that will enable an adaptive paradigm. A life‐span approach to bringing innovation to patients is expected to help address the perceived access vs. evidence trade‐off, help de‐risk drug development, and lead to better outcomes for patients.

There is broad agreement among health-care stakeholders that more must be done to ensure that patients have timely access to new and innovative medicines. Assuming that industry will continue to develop such medicines at a sustainable rate, regulators and payers become the gatekeepers. Regulators, starting in the late 1980s/early 1990s, and, more recently, payers have implemented a variety of early-access pathways or initiatives, and this practice is continuing even today. This article describes the specific approaches that have been taken in four economically developed regions, reviews their success rates, and suggests possible new directions.

This article describes recent developments in licensing and reimbursement policies in the EU, US, and Japan, examines causes of changes and compares differences and projects trends. With respect to licensing, the European Medicines Agency (EMA), US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Japan's Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA) are committed to rigorous evaluation of pharmaceuticals in advance of market access with feedback from postmarket experience. The EMA is exploring integrated adaptive pathways for licensing, with formal pilot tests to provide a practical proof of concept. The FDA is augmenting traditional licensing procedures through reforms including Breakthrough Product Designation. The PMDA is implementing reforms to foster innovation and earlier patient access through its Sakigake strategy and licensing reforms on regenerative medicines. With respect to reimbursement, several generalizations emerge. Relative to US counterparts, EU payers typically set higher standards for evidence of effectiveness as a condition of reimbursement, impose tougher limits on reimbursement by indication, and drive harder deals in negotiations over prices.