Temporal changes in the power of the longwave radiation of the system Earth-atmosphere emitted to space always lag behind changes in the power of absorbed solar radiation due to slow change of its enthalpy. That is why the debit and credit parts of the average annual energy budget of the terrestrial globe with its air and water envelope are practically always in an unbalanced state. Average annual balance of the thermal budget of the system Earth-atmosphere during long time period will reliably determine the course and value of both an energy excess accumulated by the Earth or the energy deficit in the thermal budget which, with account for data of the TSI forecast, can define and predict well in advance the direction and amplitude of the forthcoming climate changes. From early 90s we observe bicentennial decrease in both the TSI and the portion of its energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth as a planet will henceforward have negative balance in the energy budget which will result in the temperature drop in approximately 2014. Due to increase of albedo and decrease of the greenhouse gases atmospheric concentration the absorbed portion of solar energy and the influence of the greenhouse effect will additionally decline. The influence of the consecutive chain of feedback effects which can lead to additional drop of temperature will surpass the influence of the TSI decrease. The onset of the deep bicentennial minimum of TSI is expected in 2042±11, that of the 19 th Little Ice Age in the past 7500 years -in 2055±11.
The distribution of the magnetic field and radial velocities in the sunspot group were investigated simultaneously at two atmospheric levels (Hc~ and 6302.499/~) of the Sun inside the area of 35" • 80" photographically (Abdussamatov, 1970) using the method of escalation. The outward motion of matter in the spot umbra was detected.Distributions of the magnetic field at both levels are well correlated. The magnetic field motions are observed in the sunspot. The vertical gradient H decreases slightly in the direction of increasing H. The minimum of brightness I in sunspots corresponds to the maximum of H.
To estimate the time delay between the planetary temperature change and the change of the incoming solar radiation fraction absorbed by the ocean and the atmosphere, the analytical energy balance model is presented. The model generalization allows of using averaged data for model parameterization. Using the model, the time delay is investigated on four model cases of absorbed radiation change. The interconnections among the time delay, the planetary thermal inertia and the ocean active layer depth are established
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.