Economic theory revealed evidence of interrelationships among inflation, interest and exchange rates. Such theory further states possible effects of money supply and GDP on inflation, interest and exchange rates. This study focuses on the dynamic interrelationships among inflation, interest and exchange rates with the effects of money supply and GDP in Nigeria using Bayesian Vector Autoregression with Exogenous variables (BVARX) models. To achieve this, data was sourced from the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) website spanning the period of 2010Q1-2020Q4. The study proposed six (6) versions of BVARX models with lag 2 using Normal-Wishart, Normal Flat and Flat-Flat priors. The results revealed superior BVARX models with Flat-Flat prior using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as means of model selection. Lastly, evidence from Bivariate Granger causality testing reveals that the past lag values of inflation rate help in predicting exchange rate in Nigeria.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.