Deep-time palaeoclimate studies are vitally important for developing a complete understanding of climate responses to changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (that is, the atmospheric partial pressure of CO(2), p(co(2))). Although past studies have explored these responses during portions of the Cenozoic era (the most recent 65.5 million years (Myr) of Earth history), comparatively little is known about the climate of the late Miocene (∼12-5 Myr ago), an interval with p(co(2)) values of only 200-350 parts per million by volume but nearly ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and warmer-than-modern temperatures on the continents. Here we present quantitative geochemical sea surface temperature estimates from the Miocene mid-latitude North Pacific Ocean, and show that oceanic warmth persisted throughout the interval of low p(co(2)) ∼12-5 Myr ago. We also present new stable isotope measurements from the western equatorial Pacific that, in conjunction with previously published data, reveal a long-term trend of thermocline shoaling in the equatorial Pacific since ∼13 Myr ago. We propose that a relatively deep global thermocline, reductions in low-latitude gradients in sea surface temperature, and cloud and water vapour feedbacks may help to explain the warmth of the late Miocene. Additional shoaling of the thermocline after 5 Myr ago probably explains the stronger coupling between p(co(2)), sea surface temperatures and climate that is characteristic of the more recent Pliocene and Pleistocene epochs.

As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.

The tropical Pacific thermocline strength, depth, and tilt are critical to tropical mean state and variability. During the early Pliocene (~3.5 to 4.5 Ma), the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) thermocline was deeper and the cold tongue was warmer than today, which resulted in a mean state with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient or El Padre. However, it is unclear whether the deep thermocline was a local feature of the EEP or a basin‐wide condition with global implications. Our measurements of Mg/Ca of Globorotalia tumida in a western equatorial Pacific site indicate Pliocene subsurface temperatures warmer than today; thus, El Padre included a basin‐wide thermocline that was relatively warm, deep, and weakly tilted. At ~4 Ma, thermocline steepening was coupled to cooling of the cold tongue. Since ~4 Ma, the basin‐wide thermocline cooled/shoaled gradually, with implications for thermocline feedbacks in tropical dynamics and the interpretation of TEX86‐derived temperatures.