Introduction Fracture risk assessment algorithm (FRAX) is the most validated method available to predict fracture risk. Its use is restricted due to limited availability of Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA). FRAX has the option of assessing fracture risk without bone mineral density (BMD) data. Objectives To assess the ability of Sri Lankan FRAX algorithm without BMD input in evaluating fracture risk. The possibility of replacing the BMD input with Quantitative Ultrasound (QUS) data of radius in calculating fracture risk also assessed. Methods Data of clinical risk factors associated with fractures were collected from community dwelling postmenopausal women (n=339). DXA scans were performed in all subjects and QUS scans (in radius) were performed in a randomly selected sample (n=207). Ten-year risks of major osteoporotic fracture (MOFR) and hip fracture (HFR) were calculated with BMD, without BMD (FRAX-FN 0) and with QUS T score instead of BMD (FRAX-UST). Results and conclusion Nearly 35.7% had high risk of fractures. FRAX-FN 0 had 79.2% sensitivity, 80.1% specificity, 68.8% positive predictive value (PPV) and 87.4% negative predictive value (NPV). FRAX-UST showed 78.4% sensitivity, 70% specificity, 59.8% PPV and 85% NPV. ROC AUCs were above 0.80 in both FRAX-FN 0 and FRAX-UST. The standard errors of estimate (SEE) were less in FRAX-FN 0 (3.96 and 2.76 for MOFR-FN 0 and HFR-FN 0 respectively) compared to FRAX-UST (6.13 and 4.83 for MOFR-UST and HFR-UST, respectively). In conclusion, Sri Lankan FRAX without BMD is an acceptable alternative in areas with restricted DXA facility. Radial QUS data cannot be used as a substitute to FN-BMD in Sri Lankan FRAX.

Objectives This study aims to develop and validate a country specific osteoporosis risk assessing tool for Sri Lankan postmenopausal women. Methods Community-dwelling postmenopausal women were enrolled to development (n = 602) and validation (n = 339) samples. Clinical risk factors (CRFs) of osteoporosis were assessed. Bone mineral densities (BMD) of femoral neck, total hip and lumbar spine were assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan. Radial ultrasound (US) bone scan was done. Linear regression analysis was performed in development sample considering regional BMDs as dependent and CRFs as independent variables. Regression equations were developed to estimate regional BMDs using best predictive CRFs. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were assessed to validate the new tools. Results Age, body weight and US T-scores showed positive correlations with BMDs of all 3 sites. Two osteoporosis risk assessing tools (OPRATs) were developed as OPRAT-1 and OPRAT-2. Prevalence of osteoporosis, in the validation sample was 74.3%. Sensitivity were high in both tools (OPRAT-1 and OPRAT-2; 83.2% and 82.5%) while specificity were moderate (44.8% for both). PPV of OPRAT-1 and OPRAT-2 were 79.5% and 81.2%. Both tools showed moderate NPV (OPRAT-1 and OPRAT-2; 51% and 47%). Conclusions Both OPRAT-1 and OPRAT-2 have high performance in screening postmenopausal women in Sri Lanka for risk of osteoporosis. OPRAT-2 is more convenient and can be used in any healthcare setting with limited resources to identify women who will be benefitted by DXA. OPRAT-1 can be used if the radial US facility is available.