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Background Intensive Care Unit (ICU) readmissions in patients with heart failure (HF) result in a significant risk of death and financial burden for patients and healthcare systems. Prediction of at-risk patients for readmission allows for targeted interventions that reduce morbidity and mortality. Methods and results We presented a process mining/deep learning approach for the prediction of unplanned 30-day readmission of ICU patients with HF. A patient’s health records can be understood as a sequence of observations called event logs; used to discover a process model. Time information was extracted using the DREAM (Decay Replay Mining) algorithm. Demographic information and severity scores upon admission were then combined with the time information and fed to a neural network (NN) model to further enhance the prediction efficiency. Additionally, several machine learning (ML) algorithms were developed to be used as the baseline models for the comparison of the results. Results By using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) dataset of 3411 ICU patients with HF, our proposed model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0.930, 95% confidence interval of [0.898–0.960], the precision of 0.886, sensitivity of 0.805, accuracy of 0.841, and F-score of 0.800 which were far better than the results of the best baseline model and the existing literature. Conclusions The proposed approach was capable of modeling the time-related variables and incorporating the medical history of patients from prior hospital visits for prediction. Thus, our approach significantly improved the outcome prediction compared to that of other ML-based models and health calculators.

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Explaining complex algorithms and models has recently received growing attention in various domains to support informed decisions. Ranking functions are widely used for almost every form of human activity to enable effective decision-making processes. Hence, explaining ranking indicators and their importance are essential properties to enhance performance. Local explanation techniques have recently become a prominent way to interpret individual predictions of machine learning models. However, there has been limited investigation into explaining competitive rankings. This work proposes a hierarchical ranking explanation framework to capture local explanations for competitive rankings by defining a proper neighborhood construction approach. We explore various explanation techniques to identify the local contribution of ranking indicators based on the position of an instance in the ranking as well as the size of the neighborhood around the instance of interest. We evaluate the generated explanations for the Times Higher Education university ranking dataset as a benchmark of competitive ranking. The results reveal insights for a wide range of instances in the ranking list and indicate the importance of local explanations for competitive rankings.