Background
Cervical cancer is the fourth most commonly diagnosed malignant neoplasm among women worldwide. Despite improvements in treatment, the rate of postoperative metastasis remains a problem. Nomograms have been used to predict risk of tumor metastasis. We designed a nomogram to predict postoperative distant metastasis among cervical cancer patients, based on the SEER database, and estimated the performance of the nomogram by internal and external validations.
Material/Methods
We included 6421 participants and divided them into training (n=4495) and testing (n=1926) sets. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore predictors. The nomogram’s predictive value was assessed by internal (testing set) and external (561 Chinese patients) validations. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) value was calculated to evaluate the nomogram’s discrimination. The nomogram’s calibration was assessed via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve.
Results
Histologic type, T stage, treatment, tumor size, and positive lymph node were identified as independent predictors of postoperative distant metastasis in surgical patients (
P
<0.05). The developed nomogram had an AUC of 0.866 (95% CI: 0.844 to 0.888). The AUC and the chi-square for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test of the nomogram were 0.847 (95% CI: 0.807 to 0.888) and 11.292, respectively, (
P
>0.05) in the internal validation, and were 0.626 (95% CI: 0.548 to 0.704) and 316.53, respectively, (
P
<0.05) in the external validation.
Conclusions
Our nomogram showed a good predictive performance for postoperative distant metastasis in cervical cancer patients based on the SEER database. It remains to be determined if it is applicable to other populations.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.