The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) top-of-atmosphere (TOA), Edition 4.0 (Ed4.0), data product is described. EBAF Ed4.0 is an update to EBAF Ed2.8, incorporating all of the Ed4.0 suite of CERES data product algorithm improvements and consistent input datasets throughout the record. A one-time adjustment to shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) TOA fluxes is made to ensure that global mean net TOA flux for July 2005–June 2015 is consistent with the in situ value of 0.71 W m−2. While global mean all-sky TOA flux differences between Ed4.0 and Ed2.8 are within 0.5 W m−2, appreciable SW regional differences occur over marine stratocumulus and snow/sea ice regions. Marked regional differences in SW clear-sky TOA flux occur in polar regions and dust areas over ocean. Clear-sky LW TOA fluxes in EBAF Ed4.0 exceed Ed2.8 in regions of persistent high cloud cover. Owing to substantial differences in global mean clear-sky TOA fluxes, the net cloud radiative effect in EBAF Ed4.0 is −18 W m−2 compared to −21 W m−2 in EBAF Ed2.8. The overall uncertainty in 1° × 1° latitude–longitude regional monthly all-sky TOA flux is estimated to be 3 W m−2 [one standard deviation (1 σ)] for the Terra-only period and 2.5 W m−2 for the Terra– Aqua period both for SW and LW fluxes. The SW clear-sky regional monthly flux uncertainty is estimated to be 6 W m−2 for the Terra-only period and 5 W m−2 for the Terra– Aqua period. The LW clear-sky regional monthly flux uncertainty is 5 W m−2 for Terra only and 4.5 W m−2 for Terra– Aqua.

A review is provided of stationary wave theory, the theory for the deviations from zonal symmetry of the climate. To help focus the discussion the authors concentrate exclusively on northern winter. Several theoretical issues, including the external Rossby wave dispersion relation and vertical structure, critical latitude absorption, the nonlinear response to orography, and the interaction of forced wave trains with preexisting zonal asymmetries, are chosen for discussion while simultaneously presenting a decomposition of the wintertime stationary wave field using a nonlinear steady-state model.

The causes of the California drought during November–April winters of 2011/12–2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Niño event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Niña event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west–cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern.One of the key findings is that all of the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation Further highlights of the response over the United States to the Pacific forcing include precipitation signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas, with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all of the models. It is hoped that these early results, as well as those reported in the other contributions to this special issue on drought, will serve to stimulate further analysis of these simulations, as well as suggest new research on the physical mechanisms contributing to hydroclimatic variability and change throughout the world.