A regional decline in the Korean fir (Abies koreana) has been observed since the 1980s in the subalpine region. To explain this decline, it is important to investigate the degree to which environmental factors have contributed to plant distributions on diverse spatial scales. We applied a hierarchical regression model to determine quantitatively the relationship between the abundance of Korean fir (seedlings) and diverse environmental factors across two different ecological scales. We measured Korean fir density and the occurrence of its seedlings in 102 (84) plots nested at five sites and collected a range of environmental factors at the same plots. Our model included hierarchical explanatory variables at both site-level (weather conditions) and plot-level (micro-topographic factors, soil properties, and competing species). The occurrence of Korean fir seedlings was positively associated with moss cover and rock cover but negatively related to dwarf bamboo cover. At the site level, winter precipitation was significantly and positively related to the occurrence of seedlings. A hierarchical Poisson regression model revealed that Korean fir density was negatively associated with slope aspect, topographic position index, Quercus mongolica cover, and mean summer temperature. Our results suggest that rising temperature, drought, and competition with other species are factors that impede the survival of the Korean fir. We can predict that the population of Korean fir will continue to decline in the subalpine, and only a few Korean fir will survive on northern slopes or valleys due to climate change.

Regional declines of the Korean fir (Abies koreana) have been observed since the 1980s on the subalpine region. To explain this decline, it is fundamental to investigate the degree to which environmental factors have contributed to plant distributions on diverse spatial scales. We applied a hierarchical regression model to determine quantitatively the relationship between the abundance of Korean fir (seedlings) and diverse environmental factors across two different ecological scales. We measured Korean fir density and the occurrence of its seedlings in 102 (84) plots nested at five sites and collected a range of environmental factors at the same plots. Our model included hierarchical explanatory variables at both site-level (weather conditions) and plot-level (micro-topographic factors, soil properties, and competing species). The occurrence of Korean fir seedlings was positively associated with moss cover and rock cover but negatively related to dwarf bamboo cover. On site-level, winter precipitation was significantly positively related to the occurrence of seedlings. A hierarchical Poisson regression model revealed that Korean fir density were negatively associated with slope aspect, topographic position index, Quercus mongolica cover, and mean summer temperature. Our results suggest that drought and competition with other species are factors which halt the survival of Korean fir. We can predict that the population of Korean fir will continue to decline on the Korean Peninsula due to rising temperatures and seasonal drought, and only a few Korean fir will survive on northern slopes or valleys where competition with dwarf bamboo and Q. mongolica can be avoided.

The study was carried out to analyze vegetation structure of Pinus densiflora and Quercus mongolica forests located in Jochimryeong to Shinbaeryeong of the Baekdudaegan mountain range. The survey for 50 plots was conducted from April 2012 to August 2013 in the permanent plots (100 m × 100 m) using phytosociological analysis. As a result, the vegetations were classified into five vegetation units. In species composition, they were classified into Q. mongolica community group divided into 2 community such as Fraxinus rhynchophylla community and Carpinus cordata community, F. rhynchophylla community was subdivided Pinus densiflor group (into Euonymus sachalinensis subgroup, Vitis coignetiae subgroup) and Juglans mandshurica group. C. cordata community was subdivided Acer komarovii group and Betula ermanii group. In terms of importance value, P. densiflora and Q. mongolica were more than 20% respectively. P. densiflora was found to have the highest relative coverage. Analysis of interspecific association showed four types which were coincident with differential species and character species on the constancy table. Based on the diameter class distribution, P. densiflora forest presented a normal distribution pattern except for other species which showed a reverse Jshaped distribution pattern, therefore P. densiflora forest would likely be replaced by Q. mongolica forests. While in Q. mongolica forest, diameter class distribution of all species population presented a reverse J-shaped distribution pattern, therefore Q. mongolica forest could likely remain in the future.

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